Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A heat advisory is in effect for our southeastern zones this afternoon.

- A chance of thunderstorms across far western Kansas tomorrow afternoon with a better chance across the remainder of the area Thursday night

- Warm temperatures continue throughout the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A weak short wave is currently moving through the area and will be far south of the area by this evening. Some mid level clouds are expected to form across our southwestern zones and along the KS/OK border this afternoon. There may be an isolated thunderstorm that forms this afternoon in this area but quickly dissipate by early evening if they do form. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight and continue through the majority of the day tomorrow. A few thunderstorms may form across far western Kansas tomorrow afternoon but are not expected to be severe. Winds are expected to be from an easterly direction through midnight then shift to the southeast tomorrow morning through tomorrow night. As for temperatures, highs this afternoon are expected to range from the mid 90s along the I-70 corridor to low 100s along the KS/OK border. We then dip into the upper 60s to low 70s tonight with 90s for highs tomorrow with around 100 across far southwestern Kansas. Lows tomorrow night will once again fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

The upper level low will then be in place south of the area for the remainder of the forecast placing southwest Kansas under west to northwest flow aloft. A weak disturbance is expected to move over this ridge Thursday night and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. The best chance of storms will be across the northern half of the CWA. The remainder of the forecast looks dry as high pressure becomes the dominate feature across the Central Plains. As for temperatures, highs will generally reach into the 90s to low 100s with lows in the mid 60s to upper 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds are expected to be easterly 10-15 knots, weakening overnight before increasing 15-20 knots after 18z Wednesday.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-087>090.