Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions over the next several days, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

- Some air quality degradation and haziness is possible midweek as smoke from wildfires is pulled into the region.

- Rain and storm chances return Wednesday and continue through Friday. Excessive rainfall leading to flooding is the main concern, especially Thursday evening into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Cooler temperatures are in store for the next several days following the passage of a cold front this morning. With flow shifting out of the northwest, additional wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories will be drawn in via the jetstream. As clouds continue to dissipate over the course of the afternoon, the sky may take on a hazy appearance as smoke is carried southeastward. Air quality reductions will also be possible as some of the smoke mixes down to the surface with an Adi of around 50 (yellow) late this afternoon and overnight into tomorrow.

Several shortwaves are expected to propel through the region in the coming days, first during the late morning/early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Mid-level moisture improves poleside of the ridge late morning, just in time for the arrival of the vortmax. Overall, though, northwestern Missouri still looks to be on the "drier" side of the moisture gradient, especially in the lower levels. Despite a boost in mid-level moisture, there's not much confidence in rain being able to overcome the much drier near- surface layer. For now, only about a 10-20% chance of rain was included in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon in far northwest Missouri.

The next rainfall opportunity arrives late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Southwesterly flow along the upwind portion of the ridge coupled with the low-level jet setting up over western and central Kansas will allow tropical moisture to surge into the Great Plains. While the best moisture returns are expected over southern Nebraska, PWATs locally are hovering around 1.5-1.75" which is roughly within the 75th to 90th percentile of climatology. Even so, the heaviest rainfall will likely occur west and northwest of our area of concern. Portions of far eastern Kansas and western Missouri may be able to get about a tenth of an inch or so out of this initial round, but the setup strongly favors considerable rainfall elsewhere. That said, though it doesn't look particularly concerning or impactful at this time, there's about a 40-50% chance of seeing some rain during this period.

The more impactful and widespread round of rain and storms looks to arrive Thursday night and continue into much of Friday. The setup is not too dissimilar from that of the previous evening, however, the positioning of these features looks to be much more conducive for a heavy rainfall event. This is especially true with the low-level jet axis which looks to orient itself in a manner such that tropical moisture is injected directly into eastern Kansas and western/central Missouri. PWATs are forecast between 2" and 2.25", comfortably exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology with mid- /low-level RH cresting around 95% Friday morning. Preliminary assessment of forecast soundings late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon also depict a deep warm cloud layer which raises confidence in efficient rainfall, though this may be limited somewhat by a general lack of instability. Storm motion and training potential are other factors that will need to be closely monitored in the coming days. Currently, it appears that storms will be able to propagate just fast enough to remain progressive...though this might not alleviate much of the concern for heavy rainfall/flooding given the confidence surrounding efficient warm rain processes. WPC has retained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding associated with storms Thursday night into Friday. Maximum PoPs currently sit around 60-80%, peaking in the overnight and early morning hours.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with light north to northeast winds and only high-level clouds moving through.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.