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000 FXUS64 KEPZ 211735 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1135 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
- Lower storm coverage today, with scattered thunderstorms in the northern Gila Region, and isolated coverage elsewhere in SW New Mexico. Isolated storms are also expected in the Sacramento mountains and the El Paso Lower Valley. Due to slow storm motion, the few storms that can form will be capable of localized flash flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather pattern later this week, limiting storms to western New Mexico and the high elevations. Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple digits Friday into next weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Convective complex from last night has helped to regenerate a closed mid-level low embedded in the inverted trough that has been slowly transiting the area over the past several days. The inverted trough axis will lift into the Gila Region by this afternoon, while the upper low slowly crawls towards the Arizona state line. Significant convective debris (cloud cover and light showers) caught under the low will limit instability today over SW New Mexico. GFS 200 mb streamlines show upper level convergence axis currently along the Rio Grande shifting west this afternoon as well, further inhibiting convective potential. Expect today will mostly be a "down" day, especially compared to the last three days. Best chances for storms will be in northern Grant County along the trough axis, with isolated storms over the Sacramentos and Hudspeth County/the El Paso Lower Valley. A isolated storm under the upper low in SW New Mexico can't be ruled out either, though coverage will be limited. But anything that manages to form there will have very slow storm motion. East of the Rio Grande, storms will tend to train with mid and upper-level steering flow all from the SSE to NNW.
HRRR has been consistently suggesting additional showers/storms will roll up into the Lower Valley towards El Paso later tonight, aided by a vort lobe on the back side of the departing upper low.
Going forward, a sharp downturn in precip chances is expected as the subtropical ridge builds westward, boosting mid level temperatures (-2 to -3C at 500 mb). Isolated storms in the Bootheel Region, Sacramento Mountains, and Hudspeth County will be the main focus for isolated storms.
By Thursday and Friday, the subtropical ridge will park over us, and strengthen to 598-599 dm. A notable inverted trough will move into northeastern Mexico, but will pass far to our south over Durango Friday, reaching Baja Sur by Saturday. A rather mid-late June-like pattern. Max Temps will follow suit, climbing to around 100-105 in the lowlands late in the week, with Heat Advisories possibly being needed for El Paso and the Lower Valley.
Some upper level moisture will sneak in from the east on Saturday, which if you trace it back, is partially recycled moisture from today working all the way around the subtropical ridge, which will have drifted closer to the Four Corners by the weekend. Thus, expect an uptick in precip chances, especially in the Sacs/Gila for Saturday and Sunday, hopefully taking the edge off the heat.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT050-100 and SCT200. Light south to southwesterly winds will continue with speeds generally less than 10 knots. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected again this afternoon into the overnight hours, but confidence for direct impacts at TAF sites is low.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
After today, we will see a gradual warming and drying trend as afternoon highs increase and minimum RH values decrease. By Friday, much of the lowlands will be near or just below critical humidity thresholds, with some modest improvement expected by early next week though highs will remain well above normal. Winds through the period will remain light. With the moisture, we will maintain daily thunderstorm chances, but after today, chances will decrease sharply and mainly be held to mountains. Vent rates will mainly be good for most locations.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| El Paso | 73 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Sierra Blanca | 65 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Las Cruces | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Alamogordo | 69 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Cloudcroft | 51 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Truth or Consequences | 70 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Silver City | 60 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Deming | 65 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Lordsburg | 65 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| West El Paso Metro | 73 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 40% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Dell City | 70 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fort Hancock | 73 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 101 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Loma Linda | 66 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Fabens | 71 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Santa Teresa | 69 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| White Sands HQ | 73 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Jornada Range | 68 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Hatch | 68 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Columbus | 70 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Orogrande | 68 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Mayhill | 56 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Mescalero | 55 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| Timberon | 54 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Winston | 58 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Hillsboro | 64 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Spaceport | 66 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Lake Roberts | 56 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Hurley | 61 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Cliff | 63 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Mule Creek | 61 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 60% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Faywood | 63 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Animas | 65 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Hachita | 63 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 20% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Antelope Wells | 64 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Cloverdale | 62 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 50% | 20% | 30% | 10% |
EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
TX...None. NM...None.
FORECASTER...Hardiman/Brown