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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS64 KEPZ 040551 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1051 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 954 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

- Breezy Wednesday afternoon, otherwise winds on the light side.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Temperatures for the rest of the evening will be in the mid to upper 40s around El Paso, and closer to the low 40s outside the metropolitan area. Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 70s on Wednesday, at or around seasonal normals for early November. Winds will increase from the west to about 10-15 mph as an upper-level low passes through the Four Corners. This upper-level low will bring a Pacific cold front that will cool temperatures down overnight and into Thursday.

Conditions for the rest of the week will be dry and quiet, though an upper level trough moving through the Desert Southwest around Friday/Saturday could bring some limited moisture and rain chances. The ECMWF has a cutoff low splitting off from the trough Saturday afternoon, while the GFS does not. It remains to be seen how much precipitation we'll see.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 954 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period. Some 180-2108G17KT winds may be felt at KTCS and KDMN around 18Z as an upper level low moves through the Four Corners. The other TAF sites will see generally calm winds from the west with clear skies.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 948 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the week. Recent rainfall has caused fuels to drop to near record lows for fire danger. Light winds for the rest of today and tonight before becoming breezy Wednesday afternoon from W-SW. Winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected tomorrow afternoon and smoke dispersion to the east. Dry and calmer Thu into Fri, then a slight chance of rain showers into Sat. Minimal threat of lightning into the weekend. Temps will be near or slightly below normal.

Min RHs range from 30-50%. Vent rates will be fair to good Wed, otherwise poor to fair.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of Precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
El Paso 47 ℉ 74 ℉ 48 ℉ 70 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sierra Blanca 42 ℉ 75 ℉ 48 ℉ 70 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Las Cruces 41 ℉ 68 ℉ 43 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alamogordo 42 ℉ 70 ℉ 45 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloudcroft 32 ℉ 51 ℉ 34 ℉ 47 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Truth or Consequences 41 ℉ 70 ℉ 43 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Silver City 38 ℉ 64 ℉ 37 ℉ 62 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deming 40 ℉ 69 ℉ 41 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lordsburg 39 ℉ 68 ℉ 39 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
West El Paso Metro 49 ℉ 73 ℉ 50 ℉ 69 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dell City 44 ℉ 74 ℉ 47 ℉ 70 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fort Hancock 49 ℉ 83 ℉ 52 ℉ 76 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Loma Linda 44 ℉ 68 ℉ 46 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabens 47 ℉ 79 ℉ 50 ℉ 74 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Santa Teresa 44 ℉ 71 ℉ 46 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
White Sands HQ 46 ℉ 71 ℉ 48 ℉ 67 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jornada Range 41 ℉ 69 ℉ 43 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hatch 41 ℉ 72 ℉ 43 ℉ 69 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Columbus 43 ℉ 72 ℉ 45 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orogrande 42 ℉ 70 ℉ 44 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mayhill 34 ℉ 66 ℉ 38 ℉ 58 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mescalero 34 ℉ 61 ℉ 37 ℉ 59 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Timberon 33 ℉ 59 ℉ 37 ℉ 57 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Winston 33 ℉ 66 ℉ 33 ℉ 59 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hillsboro 41 ℉ 71 ℉ 41 ℉ 63 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spaceport 40 ℉ 68 ℉ 41 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lake Roberts 32 ℉ 65 ℉ 31 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hurley 37 ℉ 66 ℉ 37 ℉ 63 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cliff 39 ℉ 69 ℉ 38 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mule Creek 37 ℉ 65 ℉ 35 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Faywood 39 ℉ 65 ℉ 40 ℉ 62 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Animas 40 ℉ 71 ℉ 42 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hachita 39 ℉ 72 ℉ 41 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Antelope Wells 42 ℉ 75 ℉ 45 ℉ 69 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloverdale 43 ℉ 66 ℉ 44 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.

FORECASTER...41-Zotter