Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- A dry and cool airmass brings comfortable weather conditions with highs in 70s today.

- Potential for another frontal passage Thursday/Friday, with a secondary front possible over the weekend but differences in timing/rain exist.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A zonal flow aloft dominates South Central Texas throughout the day on Wednesday and continues into Wednesday evening. Closer to the surface, a dry and cooler airmass spreads across the local area overnight to bring lows into the mid to upper 40s across portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the low 50s elsewhere. Light northerly winds are forecast to prevail across most areas overnight through late morning. Then, wind shifts to the northeast and east across the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas in the afternoon while a southeast flow gets established along the Rio Grande Plains. We may see a few high clouds during the day, otherwise, sunny skies with highs in the 70s over most places with a few locations getting into the low 80s across the Rio Grande.

Dry conditions persist on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, the upper level flow aloft changes from a zonal to a southwest direction as an upper level storm system moves across the Four Corners region into the Southern Plains. Overnight lows remain cool across the local area for this period ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s. Low level moisture increases for this period with the return of southerly flow and therefore, scattered clouds are anticipated to develop across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Rio Grande Plains.

The upper level storm system above mentioned pushes across the Texas Panhandle midday and at the surface sends a cold front our way. This cold front pushes first across the southern Edwards Plateau and portions the Rio Grande mid to late afternoon before advancing to the southeast into the I-35 corridor close to sunset. The frontal boundary brings another opportunity for showers and storms, however, most likely across the Coastal Plains especially along and south of Highway 72, where the highest moisture levels stay. At this time, we are going with a rain-free forecast, however, a few showers can't be rule out before the day ends over the southern portion of the Rio Grande Plains. As far as rainfall amounts, we are looking at a few hundredths at most.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The frontal boundary continues to slowly push to the southeast and over the Coastal Plains on Thursday evening/early Friday morning. No rain anticipated across our area for this period. Otherwise, another round of cool airmass spreads across South Central Texas in the wake of the front with lows in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds are forecast for Thursday night into the overnight hours.

Friday's high range from the mid to upper 60s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to mid 70s over the rest of the local area. Northerly breezes are forecast for Friday with partly cloudy skies.

The upcoming weekend brings some challenges as far as what to expect. The GEFS solution is faster than the EPS for our next upper level trough and therefore, one brings more showers and storms across the local area than the other. A blend of these solutions give us rain chances of 20 percent across South Central Texas especially from midday Saturday to midday Sunday. The Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau are favored for getting the best chances for rain. QPF values for the period could range from a few hundredths to one quarter to half inch. Then, dry and cooler weather returns through at least Wednesday of next week in the wake of the weekend cold front passage. Highs over the weekend to range from the low 60s to low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Slow warming early next week with highs reaching low to mid 70s by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Northerly winds are bringing drier air behind a cold front. This is keeping skies mainly clear. All terminals will be VFR through this TAF period. Winds in Austin and San Antonio will be light out of the north. At DRT, light winds overnight will become southeasterly Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.