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000 FXUS62 KFFC 191828 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 228 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...KEY MESSAGES
- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue into the beginning of the work week. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s to mid 100s Today and Sunday.
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in effect this afternoon and evening. Primary threat will be a few damaging wind gusts.
- Rain chances will peak on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The potential for severe weather will need to be monitored.
- More seasonable temperatures are expected starting midweek.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Temperatures are on the rise this afternoon across north and central Georgia despite some lingering morning cloud cover. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s should top out by the late afternoon and early evening in the low to mid 90s. The humidity is still around as well, which means heat index values into the lower triple digits can be expected into the evening. Beyond the heat and humidity, expected isolated to scattered (20-40% chances) afternoon and evening thunderstorms across both north and central Georgia. A bit more confidence in actually seeing storms today - 12Z sounding comparison shows the full profile has a bit more moisture in it compared to yesterday, so updrafts may experience less dry air entrainment issues. Forecast SBCAPE values are in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Shear remains very light as we sit between the fading ridge to the west and the cut-off low moving over the Florida peninsula. Still, a severe threat remains thanks to DCAPE values that are forecast to be near 1000 J/kg. Rain laden air parcels from stronger storms crashing downward may provide for some isolated damaging wind gusts into the evening. SPC maintains a level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) risk for portions of the area.
The upper level low to the south continues to slowly slide to the west into the Gulf tomorrow. The CWA remains caught between various mid to upper level features, but some mid to upper level ridging may build in aloft tomorrow showing as an elevated warm nose on model soundings. This may act to limit convection when compared to today, and, outside the mountains, chances of seeing a thunderstorm tomorrow are lower (10-20% in most areas). A similar risk of a severe wind gust will exist over northern Georgia. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 90s. Humidity remains elevated with moist surface airmass in place, so heat indices will once again approach the triple digits.
LONG TERM
(Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
The large-scale mid-/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a ridge to the west over the Plains, placing Georgia within northwest flow starting on Tuesday. This pattern can support mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) along the northern periphery of the ridge that dive southward across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. If and where MCSs will develop and track (as well as where resulting outflow boundaries stall and spark convection the following day) generally have very low predictability more than 24 hours out, so PoPs and severe weather potential on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will bear watching. FWIW, the AI-NWP-based forecasts and GEFS machine learning forecasts from NCAR suggest that Marginal Risks (level 1 out of 5) may be needed on Monday and possibly Tuesday, which would not be surprising given the synoptic setup.
Ensemble guidance signals a cold air damming ("wedge") setup across north and central Georgia Wednesday night through Friday night. This is reflected in our forecasted high temperatures (70s to 80s) and low temperatures (mid-50s to mid-60s). While still seasonable temperatures for this time of year, it will be noticeably cooler than conditions this weekend. Additionally, moisture will decrease during this time, as the drier wedge airmass and northerly low-/mid- level winds prevail. Still, enough moisture will remain to support a slight chance for showers on Thursday and Friday, although the vast majority of the forecast area looks to stay dry. It may not be true autumnal weather, but given that the first day of astronomical fall is Tuesday, I will take it a slight cooldown!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
VFR to start TAF period. Primary impact this afternoon and evening will be TSRA chances across all sites through at least 02Z. Winds will remain to the east side in metro including KATL but light at 3-7 kts. Some impacts from IFR cigs possible at metro sites, AHN, and MCN during early morning hours. If confidence increases in these, TEMPO with BKN IFR may be introduced in future TAF issuances.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium overnight cigs, high all others.
Lusk
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Athens | 70 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 50% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Atlanta | 72 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 50% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Blairsville | 64 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 20% | 60% |
| Cartersville | 70 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Columbus | 72 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Gainesville | 70 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Macon | 71 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Rome | 69 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Peachtree City | 70 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 50% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Vidalia | 72 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...Lusk