Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- An elevated fire weather threat will continue today across much of North Texas with low humidity and southerly winds of 10-15 mph.

- Rain chances return from Sunday into Monday with the arrival of a weak cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and wind threats are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail through the middle portion of the workweek.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

High pressure, centered atop North and Central Texas, will once again lead to well above normal temperatures throughout the region this afternoon. Although the area of high pressure has remained nearly stationary over our region, heights have gradually been on a downward trend resulting in sub-100 degree weather across a large part of the region. Today's weather should be no different as the ridge continues to weaken, evident by the 4dm decrease of the 500mb heights over the last 24 hours.

Effective low-level mixing will keep afternoon heat index values at or slightly below actual temperature, preventing the need for any heat-related products. Unfortunately, effective low-level mixing will result in afternoon minimum relative humidity between 25-35%. The threat for additional grass fires will increase this afternoon as winds pick up between 10-15 mph. For that reason, a Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon.

Overnight, tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue with southerly flow in place. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s across much of the region with the exception of the DFW Metroplex, where upper 70s will prevail.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A pattern change will commence on Sunday as shortwaves move from west to east across the Central Plains. A cold front will move south into Oklahoma, stalling along the I-40 corridor. A weakly defined surface low may also develop through the day, aiding in northward moisture transport across the region. With the area of high pressure shunted south, subsidence will be on the downward trend, allowing for a few isolated mid-day showers west of I-35. By the afternoon, a trough axis will progress westward with embedded shortwaves adding mid-level forcing for ascent. As instability increases, scattered thunderstorms are looking probable just west/northwest of our region. With general storm motion expected to be south to south/southeast, this activity will likely work its way into our region by late in the afternoon and evening hours. The thermodynamic environment will become favorable for a few strong to severe storms capable of producing isolated damaging winds and hail. The greatest coverage of precipitation will remain along and west of I-35. With the stalled front nearby and the shortwave still overhead, convection may persist overnight and into early Monday morning, however, the overall severe weather threat decreases overnight.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region, leading to additional showers and storms in the afternoon. Exact location of where the storms may develop remains uncertain and will vary on the placement of outflows. However, there will be a potential for strong winds with any storm that develops given the continued warm weather and dry near-surface air.

A shallow front may move into North Texas on Tuesday, helping to maintain a low probability of precipitation generally west of I-35. This front will once again lack significantly cooler air as post-frontal temperatures will still be in the 90s across the region.

By Thursday, ridging will once again begin to build across the Southern Plains, deflecting any shortwaves away from the region and reducing our rain chances to near 0%. This also means we will begin to see an upward trend in afternoon temperatures as highs return to the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows remaining in the lower to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Southerly winds continue across all of North and Central Texas with fair weather cumulus clouds developing this afternoon. No major weather concerns are expected today given skies will remain VFR with no significant wind changes.

The benign weather will persist through tomorrow morning before an increase in showers and storms commences late in the afternoon. Storms may develop west of D10 between 21-00z, then gradually shift east through the rest of the evening. This is just outside of the KDFW extended TAF, therefore, no mention of precipitation will be added with this package. This will continue to be monitored and a mention of precipitation may be needed in subsequent TAF packages.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.