Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- More abnormal warmth today, with showers through late afternoon

- Cooler, more light rain Thursday and Friday

- More seasonable temperatures this weekend onward

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- More abnormal warmth today, with showers through late afternoon

After a record-setting warm day yesterday, abnormally warm temperatures are expected again today as robust southerly flow persists ahead of an advancing occluded front. While much more widespread cloud cover and precipitation (more on that below) will shave about 5 degrees off of yesterday's highs, and likewise make record high temperatures a little bit more difficult to achieve, it will nonetheless be around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. On the other end of the spectrum, while temperatures early this morning are exceptionally warm for this time of day at this time of year (mid to upper 60s), record warm minimum temperatures are not expected to be in danger as we do expect cooling this evening behind the passing occluded front. This should result in a "midnight low" temperature at most locations, rather than the typical early morning low temperature timing.

Meanwhile, on-and-off light rain and a few convective showers remain in the forecast for today, and we've already seen a few of these showers scrape the lakeshore early this morning. This initial light rain appears to be driven largely by warm advection and isentropic ascent, and high resolution model guidance continues to project an enhanced period of mainly stratiform rain spreading into most of the area for a few hours shortly after sunrise this morning. What is less certain is how precipitation will evolve following this initial round of light rain, as there will likely be a bit of a lull and at least a brief window for modest destabilization and scattered convection from early to mid afternoon. MLCAPE projections are meager (100-250 J/kg) and concentrated within a shallow layer, but there is enough there to support a few stronger showers capable of an occasional lightning strike or 30-40mph wind gust, particularly along the advancing occluded front.

By late afternoon/early evening (5-7 pm), these showers and the aforementioned front will move east of the area, and put a (temporary) end to precipitation.

- Cooler, more light rain Thursday and Friday

By Thursday, while low level flow will still be out of the southwest, modest cold air advection should bring temperatures down about 10-15 degrees from today, which is still slightly above average but much more seasonally appropriate. Meanwhile, the remnants of the occluded low will be driven southeast by a more robust surge of cooler air, and the associated cold front will sweep through the area overnight and Friday morning. The key takeaway for our area throughout all of this is that we will likely see an extended period of light showers beginning in northern areas during the day Thursday, spreading southeast into the remainder of the lower peninsula Friday behind the cold front. Some lake-enhanced showers remain possible behind the front as well, but due to the northerly fetch, most of this lake enhancement will remain over the open waters and along the immediate lakeshore. In any case, rain amounts throughout this are expected to be very light. Finally, this should bring high temperatures to their lowest point of the next week, with highs dipping into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees.

- More seasonable temperatures this weekend onward

Behind Friday's cold front, much more typical temperatures can be expected over the weekend, as ensemble guidance has trended slightly cooler with regard to the post-frontal airmass. In fact, we may see a localized freeze in many areas Saturday and Sunday mornings, with best chances for a more solid freeze (below 30 degrees) north of the M-20 corridor. High temperatures are also expected to remain near seasonal averages over the weekend (low to mid 50s). Meanwhile, precipitation chances remain low over the weekend (and beyond), but there remains a slight chance (20%) for some spotty lake-effect rain showers Sunday as a weak shortwave and reinforcing shot of cool air move through the area. In the extended period (Monday onward), a slight moderating trend in temperatures appears likely, with minimal chances for additional precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Active weather is expected at various points throughout the TAF period. At the start, some lingering low level wind shear is expected, and this should diminish early this morning. Ceilings and precipitation chances then become the main concern, as light rain and MVFR ceilings will spread into all terminals for a few hours from early to mid morning.

After light rain clears briefly from late morning to early afternoon, scattered convective showers are expected to develop ahead of a passing occluded front. While we can't rule out a stray strike of lighting and locally stronger wind gust, probabilities are too low to include in the TAF. Showers will end by late afternoon as the front passes through. Breezy south winds will reduce slightly and veer to the southwest behind the front, and MVFR ceilings should largely persist.

CLIMATE

Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Daily record maximum temperatures for November 4 (and the most recent occurrence) are as follows:

Grand Rapids (GRR): 75 degrees (2015) Lansing (LAN): 76 degrees (2015) Kalamazoo (AZO): 77 degrees (1987) Muskegon (MKG): 71 degrees (2022) Battle Creek (BTL): 75 degrees (2015) Holland (BIV): 73 degrees (2020)

GRR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ847>849.