Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes needed with this forecast update. Shower activity has largely become confined to the Western Maine Mountains at this hour as the front continues to lift northward.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming peaks today with temperatures challenging records.

2. A widespread soaking rainfall is possible for the late week into the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A warm front lifts north of the area this morning bringing overnight shower activity to an end. Upper level ridging then builds in allowing for 925 mb temperatures to climb into the +16 to +18 C range. How quickly clouds clear behind the front is a question, but even with halfway decent mixing this should be good for afternoon temperatures at least the mid-70s for much of the area. This is around 20 degrees above normal for this time of year so records at climate sites are going to be challenged. Record values for today can be found in the Climate section below.

Clouds and dewpoints increase tonight making for another mild night with temperatures only bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s in the north, and in the low to mid-50s to the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A frontal boundary approaches the northeast on Thursday and will be the focus for wetter weather and potentially a soaking rain event for at least a portion of our area as it stalls out. The largest point of uncertainty in the forecast is the speed of the front and where it stalls out as it will be the focus for an axis of heavy rain as the trough (and eventually an upper low) draw in tropical moisture and drive PWATs into the 1 to 1.5 inch range. The global model trends have been toward the front stalling just offshore which doesn't rule out a soaking rain, but may keep it confined to the coast. The 04.01Z NBM probabilities of greater than an inch of rain for the Friday through Saturday timeframe currently sit at 60 to 75 percent at the coast and decrease to 40 to 50 percent up into the foothills. Western New Hampshire and the Western Maine Mountains may miss out on these higher totals, but probabilities of at least half an inch are 40 to 60 percent for these areas. Of course a slower front and further west stall changes all of this, so trends need to be monitored closely.

Looking ahead into early next week the pattern remains unsettled as troughing persists over the northeast. Chances for showers remain in the forecast through Monday, with upslope rain and snow showers potentially persisting into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday: Early morning MVFR and IFR conditions improve to VFR today with light southwesterly winds. Ceilings thicken again tonight but should remain VFR.

Outlook... Thursday: VFR conditions expected. Some light rain or showers possible.

Friday-Saturday: Rain likely for eastern half of the forecast area. MVFR or lower conditions develop Fri and linger thru Sat.

Sunday: Returning to VFR conditions.

MARINE

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the period. One window to watch will be late this week as low pressure develops along a stalled frontal boundary and zips northward along it. If the front is able to stall slightly farther west, that may introduce some gusty southerly winds and building seas for some of our waters east of Port Clyde.

CLIMATE

Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for parts of the forecast area, and are expected to approach daily records. The records for the local climate stations for November 4th are as follows:

PWM: 74 set in 1987 CON: 75 set in 1987 AUG: 74 set in 1990

GYX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.