Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

High pressure will be located well off of the DelMarva Coast next several days as will a ridge in the mid levels. Both anticyclones will be elongated SW to NE meaning they both extend an axis into the Southeastern U.S. Both progress/are pushed eastward on Friday as an upper low drops into the Great Lakes, a cold front approaching from our NW in tandem. Looks like a narrow line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will push through Friday, tending to favor the afternoon hours. And while actual rain chances remain high the QPF prospects will be minimized by the line's quick transition offshore. Convective elements have trended north in successive REFS forecasts, indicating the potential for locally higher totals will also remain outside of the area.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Weak onshore low level flow will produce CIGs near the coast this evening. This cloud cover will struggle as it moves inland where winds are weaker. Periodic IFR is possible for coastal terminals early this morning due to CIGs. Patchy fog is expected to develop inland where winds are lighter. REFS highlights the I-95 corridor and points westward as the best chance for restrictions. FLO ob continues at around 5 knots as of TAF issuance, so the latest forecast favors IFR restrictions at LBT with some ground fog possible around daybreak. Fog should mix out by 13-14Z.

Beyond that, gradient winds veer to the SE and increase to 8-10 kts by Wednesday afternoon, before leveling off to near 5 kts towards the end of the period. A transient shower is possible this afternoon, but impacts should be minimal with VFR conditions persisting.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday, outside of fog/low stratus issues in the morning near sunrise. Look to have more organized flight restrictions Friday and Friday evening with the next round of showers and storms sweeping through the region from west to east. Forecast dries out for the weekend, but the morning fog threat may still remain (lower confidence there).

MARINE

Increasingly light onshore winds for the next few days as the high well to our northeast gradually drifts further out to sea off the DelMarva Coast. A cold front approaches Friday turning wind to the S Thursday night, the boundary itself slated for passage Friday night. Both the surge of high pressure and low level thermal advection post- FROPA look quite tempered and so not expecting any headlines. The veering flow will shorten dominant wave periods especially in the absence of much swell energy.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.