Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major adjustments with the latest forecast however did reword the key message to also begin focusing on a period of cooler weather expected toward the end of the upcoming week. Updated the aviation discussion as well for the 18Z TAF set.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A period of unsettled weather will exist, especially Tuesday through Thursday with much cooler weather beginning Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of unsettled weather will exist, especially Tuesday through Thursday with much cooler weather beginning Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The mid/upper low invof FL is expected to open and lift toward the northeast Monday through Wednesday directed by a developing upper trough across the upper Midwest region. This trough will advance toward the OH Valley into the eastern U.S. Wednesday into Thursday. A CAD event will likely unfold Tuesday into Thursday as the surface low remains offshore with high pressure ridging southward into the Carolinas. Convection is likely at times Tuesday and Wednesday with good chances of rainfall after the CAD develops given the positioning of the upper trough. In the end, below normal temperatures are expected to arrive Thursday and persist through the end of the week. It seems reasonable that NBM high temperatures Thursday are too high unless the CAD is slower to evolve. Much lower PWATs are on tap for the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered showers have primarily developed in the Cape Fear Region bringing some restrictions to KILM initially. The resultant boundary has passed west of KMYR will less chances there as a result. Included VCSH for KFLO/KLBT/KCRE for a few hours this afternoon. Expecting a range from VFR to IFR overnight with most of the lower CIGs impact KFLO/KLBT. Expect conditions to improve after 13-15Z Sunday at all terminals.

Extended Outlook...Showers and storms are most likely to cause some flight restrictions Tuesday and Wednesday. Morning fog/stratus possible each morning through Monday. Developing CAD may result in lower CIGs Thursday.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday: E-NEly winds will increase as a ridge builds southward through the remainder of the day into tonight with speeds around 15 knots (a touch higher Cape Fear northward). These winds will diminish during Sunday and veer to a SEly direction in the afternoon. Winds around 10 knots or less are expected Monday into Tuesday then low pressure is expected to develop off the SC during Tuesday. This low will be situated east of NC Tuesday night as a strong ridge builds southward into the Carolinas. This will lead to strengthening Nly winds Wednesday, with the potential for Small Craft conditions increasing.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.