Area Forecast Discussion

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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS61 KILN 040528 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1228 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level low pressure system moves northeast through the Upper Midwest.

2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to somewhat cooler temperatures and occasional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A strengthening low level jet will overspread our area through this morning ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. Good moisture advection associated with this will lead to developing shower activity through the morning hours. Shower activity will then continue into this afternoon before beginning to taper off from west to east late this afternoon into this evening. Instability will remain weak at best, so think any embedded thunderstorm activity should be fairly limited. PWs will creep up into the 1.5 inch range, so some of the stronger showers/storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. However, given the overall dry antecedent conditions, any flooding concerns should be limited.

Key message 2) A mid level short wave will drop down across the Great Lakes region and through the upper Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. This will bring a chance of showers Friday into Friday night. This will also usher in a somewhat cooler airmass heading into the weekend. Daytime highs will only be in the 50s Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will then gradually rebound Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Showers will overspread the region this morning ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. A strengthening low level jet associated with this will lead to some marginal LLWS through mid morning. Shower activity will then continue into this afternoon before tapering off from west to east as we head into this evening. Cigs and vsbys will trend down into MVFR category as the low levels moisten up later this morning, with some localized IFR conditions also possible. It will be tough to rule out an isolated thunderstorm too, but chances are low enough to leave any mention out of the TAFs. South winds of 15 to 25 knots can be expected today.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL