Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood and severe threat has diminished

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message 1) Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area this evening.

Key Message 2) Drier and cooler conditions expected through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A cold front that has moved through west central Ohio will continue southeast across the region through the evening into the early overnight. A fairly solid line of showers with a bit of embedded thunder has developed along the front with isolated convection also occurring well ahead of the boundary. There is still a reasonable amount of CAPE available, but lapse rates have become rather unimpressive. So cannot rule out a stronger cell, but overall the threat is low. Expect all activity to weaken as it gets further into the diurnal cooling cycle.

KEY MESSAGE 2) High pressure will build into the region behind the front for mid week. Calmer/drier/cooler weather is expected into the late week. Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate toward more seasonable values as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Scattered to broken cumulus to start the period will diminish towards 04Z. Some showers could affect KDAY to KCMH/KLCK which may reduce visibility. As a weak disturbance drops across the area during the overnight, there is some potential for some clouds around the 2kft level. This is on the lower confidence end of the spectrum, but there is enough of a signal in central Ohio to include a least a temporary ceiling for a few hours. Also, winds may become light enough at KLUK for some shallow fog to result in visibility reductions. Beyond 13Z, will only have scattered to broken higher based cumulus. Winds will shift to west northwest early as the front moves through and then veer to become more northerly through the rest of the period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.