Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain arrives from south to north this morning.

- Not as warm today but remaining somewhat breezy with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

- Drying out tonight through Thursday morning before lake enhanced showers begin and persist into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A 1002mb low swirls over far southwest WI early this morning while a lagging cold front bulges into western IL. An area of rain is lifting through the Ohio River Valley beneath 75-knot 500mb flow and a 50-knot 850-mb jet. Rain today will generally amount to 0.10- 0.25". Far northwest OH might see slightly more based on the trajectory of the heaviest returns upstream, in an area of favorable moisture convergence aided by the aformentioned jets. Forecast soundings show little chance of any deep low-level mixing today which will keep wind gusts in check; primarily 20 mph to 30 mph. Rain tapers off from west to east by early afternoon as the dryslot moves overhead. Cold air advection is delayed until late in the day due to boundary- parallel flow and will be most noticeable by Thursday when with lows in the mid- 40s and highs shy of 60 degrees (a touch mild still for early November).

After a dry start to Thursday, a secondary trough axis ripples through in the late afternoon providing ample lift for scattered showers. Reinforcing cold air (2C at 850mb) over a 10-13C Lake Michigan results in lake enhanced showers that persist into Saturday morning. (If the airmass were colder, this would be a solid LES setup.) Friday and Saturday are the coldest of this forecast period as deep troughing is entrenched over the eastern Great Lakes.

Temperatures inch upward early next week as we lie on the cusp of a south-central US ridge. How far east this ridge propagates is uncertain with the prospect of a potential blocking pattern taking shape over the interior Rockies. For now, precipitation chances appear minimal, but a shift in energetic northwest flow could flip the script if the ridge is not as strong, bringing passing chances for light rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Strong low level jet pushing northward currently over IL with light to moderate rainfall will slowly push eastward overnight bringing a drop from VFR to MVFR cat cigs after 11z Wed for both TAF sites. Light to moderate rain showers can be expected with some slight lowering of VSBYs to around 6SM in light rain at times between 11z and 21z Wed. Gusty southerly winds with gusts up to around 25 kts expected through this TAF period.

IWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ043- 046.