Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Trending warmer through the weekend with relatively cooler temperatures mid week next week.

* Dry weather is likely through most of next week.

* Very low chance of rain around Friday.

DISCUSSION

Quiet weather continues through the afternoon and evening hours as high pressure builds over the region. Coastal stratus hasn't burned off as of 2pm this afternoon along the coast. Models aren't handling the burning off of these clouds very well, although we should see the coastal stratus build right back in later tonight and into portions of the Umpqua valley.

High pressure will remain in place on Sunday with highs moving just a bit higher with 91 currently in the forecast for Medford. Temperatures trend slightly higher on Sunday and end up 5 degrees warmer than normal for this mid/late September period.

We'll see a closed low move into California by Monday afternoon with a zonal 500 mb height pattern farther to the north. Temperatures won't change much and end up seasonal for this time of year. Dry weather will likely continue through Monday and Tuesday with a lack of moisture and no strong lifting mechanisms in our region.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday it appears a cold front stalls out along the Oregon coast with a short wave moving through northern Oregon. Again, not much moisture here, although we're expecting some relatively cooler temperatures over the area.

With troughing in the Gulf of Alaska, a deeper wave will approach the Oregon coast by Thursday night into Friday. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF appear on the wetter side compared to a lot of the ensemble guidance. There are a few ECWMF ensembles that bring wetting rain to our area Friday, although the vast majority are keeping things dry with precipitation over other locations. The NBM currently has a 15-20% chance of rain along the coast with those probabilities falling to about 5% farther inland on Friday. Overall, we're not anticipating any major or moderate impacts from this potential rain. With no impacts from the burnscars during the last event, any rain on Friday should follow the same path with limited impacts.

Lastly, our graphical hazardous weather outlook is picking up on some frost and freezing temperatures in northern Lake County Friday night once this cooler air moves in. Overnight lows around Crescent and Chemult will be around 29 with some mid 20's just east of Crater Lake.

Overall, minimal weather impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days with normal September weather.

-Smith

AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs

The shorter days and longer nights are having an impact on the staying power of the marine layer (it's lasting longer). Where model guidance is already clearing things out along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin, satellite imagery is showing IFR/MVFR clouds holding strong over Roseburg and North Bend. Even so, clouds are eroding slowly and we should see these clear to VFR at Roseburg by ~19Z. It'll probably take a little longer than that at the coast (North Bend), which is indicated to break to VFR ~22Z. For those areas that do break out, it will be short-lived. We expect a similar return of marine layer induced MVFR/IFR conditions at the coast and the Umpqua Basin this evening/overnight.

The remainder of the area is VFR and will remain that way through Sunday morning with weak diurnal breezes. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, September 19, 2026

Increasing north winds will allow steep seas to develop south of Cape Blanco late this evening, then likely extend to Cape Arago during Sunday afternoon and evening. North winds and wind driven seas are likely to continue building to a peak Monday evening, with very steep seas and gale force gusts possible south of Gold Beach. Conditions remain near that level on Tuesday with at least brief improvement on Wednesday.

MFR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.