Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier & less humid through the end of the work week. Muggy conditions return late weekend.

- Showers & storms return to the forecast Sunday into Monday.

- Beach Hazards Statement in effect for Sheboygan to Kenosha for breezy onshore winds and waves from 3-8 feet from 5pm CDT until 1 pm CDT Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued 650 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Forecast remains mostly on track early this evening. Secondary cold front is in the process of moving through the region, and will allow a noticeably cooler air mass originating from the Hudson Bay vicinity to settle in during the overnight hours. Passage of the front has allowed an enhanced push of northeasterly winds to back off Lake Michigan, with sensible impacts to temperatures being most noticeable over the eastern portions of our lakeshore counties. Have knocked temperatures back a touch through the evening to better align with observational trends. While chances are waning with decreasing heating of the day, still can't rule out an isolated shower or sprinkle in far southeast Wisconsin through mid-evening.

Quigley

SHORT TERM

Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday night:

This afternoon, a secondary cold front is expected to move through the reason which will potentially bring another round of rainshowers down through the northeast region of the CWA down to along the coastline of Lake Michigan. Showers will be light/brief and will move out of the region by mid-evening. Winds this afternoon will be from the northwest with sustained speeds around 10-15 mph across most of the region with gusts around 20 mph and sustained speeds of 15-20 mph along the coastlines with gusts near 25 mph. There is a beach hazard statement out from 5pm CDT until Wednesday afternoon for 3 to 8 foot waves. Remain out of the water as swimming conditions will be dangerous. After the front moves through, winds direction will slightly shift to be primarily from the north and speeds briefly increase before gradually falling off as higher pressure begins to nudge in.

As high pressure builds back in tomorrow from the west, sticking around for much of the next few days, skies will start to clear out and winds will again be from the northwest and continue to be light. High temperatures are expected to in lower 70s with upper 60s along the coastline. It will be noticeably drier throughout the CWA with dewpoints only reaching the upper 40s/lower 50s which will be a nice relief after last week.

Tomorrow night, low temperatures will drop to be near the mid 50s with dewpoints near the low 50s. Visibility may drop in the river valley on the west side of the CWA, but will rise again Thursday morning.

Soergel/Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

High pressure remain in the region on Thursday with cooler and drier conditions expected. Winds will back from the east to be from the south Friday into Saturday which will bring in moisture along with higher temperatures with highs up to the low 90s by Sunday afternoon and dewpoints near the low 70s. With these hot and humid conditions, the potential for rain and thunderstorms return by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Sunday into Monday, the next weather system will move through the region and bring rain and thunderstorm chances. Severity of these storm/rain chances will be determined by the timing of the system which is uncertain at this point, but will have more clarity by the end of the week. Hot and humid temps are expected to continue into the beginning of next week along with increased cloud coverage, but by Tuesday, winds will shift to be from the north as the system exits which will bring in cool and drier air by mid week.

Soergel/Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 650 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

SCT to BKN VFR CIGS this afternoon with some isolated to scattered showers across central WI tracking SE this afternoon in association with a front swinging down from the north. Have maintained TEMPO groups for the next couple hours at KMKE and KENW to cover this potential. In response to a marine air mass backing off Lake Michigan, sporadic MVFR CIGs have been reported in the vicinity of KMKE over the last hour, and have been accounted for with TEMPO groups in the 00Z update. While conditions haven't been observed as of yet at KENW, have also carried TEMPO MVFR mentions. Expect returns to VFR later this evening as larger scale flow becomes predominant once more & scatters the marine air mass out. Breezy NW winds will turn northerly behind the front. Expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.

Kuroski/Quigley

MARINE

Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Low pressure near 29.3 inches will move eastward across the James Bay though this afternoon which will bring a secondary cold front across the lake through tonight. Breezy northwest winds are expected and will veer to be from the north behind the cold front. Gusts are expected with a gale force wind possible for a brief period behind the front. Winds will decrease in speed later tonight into Wednesday as high pressure near 30.1 inches begins to build into the region from the west.

Soergel/Kuroski

MKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Wednesday.

Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 7 AM Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 AM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Wednesday.