Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- A passing disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area this weekend and into next week.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- Seasonable temperatures will continue across the area over the next several days but remaining humid.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Today-Sunday... An upper level cut-off low will move westward across the Florida peninsula today before stalling over the eastern Gulf Sunday. At the surface, broad high pressure will remain across the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Locally, deep moisture will increase, with forecast PW values of 1.8-2.0" both days. East to northeast winds will persist through the rest of the weekend, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. Near normal to slightly higher than normal rain chances are forecast each day. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain today, and a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance on Sunday. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will generally be across the interior (west of I-95) today and across the south, mainly from Kissimmee to Melbourne southward, on Sunday. Isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast in the morning before coverage increases and transitions over land in the afternoon as daytime heating occurs and the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland each day. The environment supports convection with sufficient instability (1500-1700 J/kg of MUCAPE), adequate shear (around 20 KT of sfc-8km), cooler temperatures aloft (-7C to -8C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (600-800 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty wind of 45-50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches each day. Any lingering shower and storm activity will diminish each evening, with mostly dry conditions expected overnight. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters overnight and into the morning, with some of this activity potentially moving onshore.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast through the rest of this weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. Warm and muggy conditions continue each night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. There is a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches this weekend. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

Monday- Friday... The upper level low off the west coast of Florida to start off the week will slowly lift northeast before becoming absorbed by a northern stream trough early week. The trough will slowly shift eastward towards the eastern coast, eventually moving offshore the eastern US by mid-late week. At the surface, a frontal boundary is forecast to reach central Florida Thursday before stalling across south Florida on Friday. Locally, deep moisture will remain through mid week, supporting high rain and storm chances, with a high (60-80 percent) chance of rain Monday-Wednesday. Slightly drier air will filter across the local area into late week, resulting in rain chances becoming near normal, with a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of rain Thursday-Friday. Main storm hazards will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds around 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Seasonable temperatures are forecast through the period, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 95-105 degrees each day. Warm and muggy conditions forecast each night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Today-Thursday... Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast into mid next week. East to northeast winds will prevail with speeds below 15 KT. seas 2-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each day and overnight. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms w/ onshore flow. TAFs begin w/ VCTS at all TAF sites except KDAB w/ TEMPO groups for TSRA between 18Z-21Z. VCTS and a TEMPO group for TSRA between 18Z-22Z SUN is also forecast at KMCO. ENE winds at 8-10kts are expected to be light and variable tonight before increasing SUN AM. An isol'd strong storm cannot be ruled out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MLB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.