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000 FXUS64 KMOB 191742 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
- Scattered showers and storms are expected through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.
- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range Saturday through the beginning of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Latest water vapor imagery shows a rather amplified ridge over the Plains and Mississippi Valley, with a low spinning over the eastern Gulf as well as over the northern Rockies. At the surface, winds across the local area have been relativity weak and under plentiful sunshine, temps having risen into the lower 90s. Through the remainder of the day, we may see isolated convection later in the day, as the influence of the aforementioned ridge lessens as it nudges west a bit. A few brief wind gusts are possible with any storm that develops and, like is typical, activity will likely diminish after sunset.
The upper low over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly steady state as the ridge to our west maintains some hold through Sunday. Despite this, the coverage of rain on Sunday is likely to be higher than normal, as weaknesses in the ridge aid in convection initiated by the sea breeze. The better chances will be across our southern and eastern zones, where scattered to potentially numerous storms develop. Like today, gusty winds are possible, along with locally heavy rainfall. The ridge will continue to weaken and retrograde to the west as the low currently over the Rockies shifts eastward through the Plains. Similar conditions are anticipated for Monday, though with lesser coverage of storms. By Tuesday, the ridge will be west of the area, while a shortwave moves through the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. As the shortwave continues to move eastward, the low over the Gulf will become absorbed in the shortwave and the shortwave will move well east of the area by the end of the week. Upper ridging will build in once again for the latter half of the workweek, bringing a return of dry and hot conditions. /73
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon, but confidence is too low to add mention in the TAFs. /73
MARINE
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through the middle of next week with winds trending to an occasionally moderate onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Mobile | 73 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 0% | 30% | 10% | 40% |
| Pensacola | 77 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Destin | 77 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Evergreen | 70 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Waynesboro | 72 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Camden | 71 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Crestview | 72 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 20% | 30% |
MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.