Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Strong gusty winds will occur in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee mountains tonight and Wednesday. A Wind Advisory remains in effect.

- Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms expected today into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

An approaching low pressure system over the MS Valley region will bring gusty winds to the mountains and foothills and widespread rainfall to our area today and tonight. So far, winds in the usual wind-prone places in the mountains and foothills have been in the 35- 45 mph range. A few spots like Cove Mountain and Camp Creek could reach 50-60 mph, but most areas in the Wind Advisory will stay under 50 mph.

Light precip has been spreading into the area already, but the moderate rain associated with the cold front will arrive later in the morning, around 12Z or so. There is some weak instability that could allow for a few isolated thunderstorms, but overall, the dynamics with this system are not particularly impressive. The front will be slow to progress through the area as the closed upper low moves over the Great Lakes, and this slow movement will allow for some needed rainfall amounts of a half to one inch through Wednesday night. Some spots with orographic enhancement could see higher amounts. The preceding dry conditions make the chance of flooding low, but it cannot be ruled out completely in some flood-prone or urban areas.

Temperatures behind the front on Thursday don't drop much, with highs still in the 70s. A stronger push of cold air comes on Friday night with the passage of a deeper upper trough and a secondary cold front. This will bring highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s for the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

LLWS will be the main concern through the rest of the night into the early morning hours as showers gradually move in from the west, especially around CHA. MVFR is also expected at CHA before rain spreads eastward to the other two sites. Reductions to IFR are also possible at times with heavy rainfall due to more intense showers or embedded storms. Winds will also increase at the surface, especially at CHA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MRX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.