Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm through Thursday.

2) Moderate to heavy rainfall remains increasingly likely Thursday night into Friday night from NYC and points east.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... A highly amplified upper level ridge along the eastern seaboard will provide another couple of days of unseasonable warmth, with temperatures at least 10-15 degrees above normal.The warmest day will come today, with much of the area topping out in the lower and mid 70s, with a few upper 70s possible in NE NJ. This is still in line with GFS MOS guidance and the NBM 90th percentile. Thursday takes a slight step down with increasing clouds and a strengthening S-SW flow off the cooler ocean waters.

Forecast highs and lows get close to but remain within maximum records at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A highly amplified upper flow featuring the interaction of multiple streams of energy will become the major player as an upper trough undergoes amplification approaching the eastern seaboard at the end of the week. A weak cold front associated with the upper trough will approach the area on Thursday, preceded by some warm advection showers, but mainly north and west of the NYC metro. As the front works across from Thu night into Friday, deep layer lift develops due to the coupling of upper jet exit and entrance regions and a strengthening frontal zone. Models are in good agreement with a band of heavy rain setting up across the area Fri into Fri night. Both the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF point toward at least a 2-3 inch swath across ern Long Island and SE CT, dropping to less than inch just NW of NYC. NBM amts looked too low at least for Long Island and S CT given degree of moisture transport into those areas and convergence on the nose of an H8 LLJ enhancing lift, so blended that with the higher model QPF noted above. NBM 90th percentile has higher amts of 2-3 inches extending NW north/west and 4-5 inches for ern Long Island/SE CT, so there is still room for heavier amts to extend north/west and for amts across the board to be higher than fcst. While there is some instability to support deeper convection, we are still not in the window of the REFS and HRRR to see hourly rates. GFS has PW values approaching 1.75 inches near eastern Long Island, which is above the 90th percentile.

WPC still has the NYC metro, Long Island, coastal CT, and interior SE CT under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday. However, dry antecedent conditions are in place due to little if any rainfall since mid October. This will also be a long duration event. Thus, the main flooding issues at this time look to be minor, but longer term issues like basement flooding are a possibility.

Heaviest rainfall likely comes to end by Saturday morning, but some shower activity could linger on saturday with the upper low overhead.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast into midweek.

Mainly VFR through Wednesday.

Light SW/S flow or light and variable winds are expected through the morning push. Winds for much of the daytime will be from the SW/S around 10kt or less.

Possible shallow fog development around the morning push that could lead to some restrictions after 9Z. Confidence still low and will keep out of most the TAFs. More confidence in lowering cigs tonight around or after 6Z Thursday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

Possible shallow fog could lead to sub VFR at times early Wednesday morning, mainly between 9-13Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR during the day. MVFR becomes likely at night for cigs and showers.

Friday: MVFR/IFR possible w/ showers. Thunder also possible.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Sunday: MVFR possible w/ showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Long fetch S-SW flow of 15-20 kt up the coast could push significant wave heights up to 5 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet late Thu night. Winds and seas relax on Fri, but then seas on all the ocean waters could surpass 5 ft in NW flow this weekend after a cold frontal passage, along with some gusts to 25 kt late Sat night into Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

November 4: KEWR: 79/1994 KBDR: 78/1975 KNYC: 78/1975 KLGA: 76/1987 KJFK: 77/1975 KISP: 76/1990

November 5: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 78/1961 KLGA: 75/2022 KJFK: 75/1975 KISP: 74/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5: KEWR: 61/2022 KBDR: 59/1961 KNYC: 64/2022 KLGA: 63/2022 KJFK: 60/2022 KISP: 62/2022

November 6: KEWR: 66/2022 KBDR: 62/2024 KNYC: 66/2022 KLGA: 65/2024 KJFK: 64/2022 KISP: 65/2022

Record Precipitation:

November 6: KEWR: 2.12/1911 KBDR: 0.54/2018 KNYC: 1.47/1911 KLGA: 0.96/1963 KJFK: 1.42/1963 KISP: 0.71/1963

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.