Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Heat advisory Wednesday afternoon across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Dangerous heat is expected this afternoon as a mid-level ridge begins to settle into the southern Plains. Heat indices of 105-110F will be possible across the entire area, with heat indices over 110F across the eastern half of the area. A weak front will push in today, providing very little relief. There is a low chance for isolated showers and storms across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Overnight lows will be very similar to yesterdays, mainly upper 70s to low 80s.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

We will notice a cooler day Wednesday behind the aforementioned frontal boundary. Highs behind the front will generally be in the mid 90s, whereas temperatures ahead of the boundary will be in the triple digits. Heat indices of 100-105 F are expected across far southern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. There is a very low (10%) chance for an isolated shower/storm to develop along the boundary Wednesday afternoon. A heat advisory has been issued for these locations through Wednesday evening.

Southerly winds will return on Thursday, with the eastern half of the area getting into the upper 90s, and the western half getting into the triple digits. Heat headlines will likely be added as we get closer to Thursday.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A weak shortwave will round the northern portion of the upper ridge on Friday, helping send a front into the area. Models are still not in great agreement on precipitation chances with the front, but at least isolated showers and storms appear probable for at least portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening. Upper ridging will then strengthen further over the region this weekend into early next week, bringing a return of areawide triple digit heat and lowering precipitation chances to near zero through the remainder of the long term period.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Isolated showers and storms over northern Oklahoma are expected to dissipate within the next hour or two. Light winds tonight will increase from the east after sunrise tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010- 014>017-021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008- 011>013-018>020-024>026-028>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ033>039- 043>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.