Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Rain is likely over northwest and north-central Oklahoma on Thursday.

- Above-average temperatures return early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Overall, a pleasant weather day is in store for us today, despite the chilly temperatures this morning.

The subtropical jet currently passing along an approaching low- amplitude ridge will transport scattered high clouds to western north Texas and southern Oklahoma with abundant sunshine expected. As the associated surface high tracks across Texas, expect light NW/W winds will back to the south by this afternoon and into the evening. The combination of diabatic heating, weak downslope flow (H850), and mid-level height rises will make way for slightly warmer temperatures today for most areas.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Mid-level height falls ahead of an approaching trough will result in the formation of a surface cyclone over the Texas panhandle on Wednesday night. With enhanced low-level WAA ahead of the system, expect rain, mainly light, to develop over northwest Oklahoma after sunrise Thursday. Meanwhile, light southerly winds over far northern Oklahoma shift to the northeast.The surface low moves southeastward from the TX panhandle to southwest Oklahoma or western north Texas by mid-to late-morning. Rain is likely over the northern half of Oklahoma by early afternoon and very low instability should keep lightning activity to a minimum. The rain- cooled air (northern OK) contrasting with mostly sunny skies (southern OK) will encourage the development of a frontal boundary that pushes south of the OKC metro by mid- afternoon as the surface low reaches the Red River. As the pressure gradient tightens, especially over the north and west sides of the low, windy conditions develop over western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Cities such as Elk City, Altus, Hobart, and Vernon will see sustained N/NW winds increase to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph by mid-day or early afternoon. Scattered rain showers are likely tomove into central and possibly southwest Oklahoma by mid-afternoon with rain exiting by late Thursday evening. High temperatures are forecast to rise only into the mid-50's (northwest OK) to low-60's (central) and mid-70's (south). With clearing skies, temperatures drop into the upper 30's over northwest Oklahoma (40's elsewhere) by Friday morning.

Another pleasant weather day is expected on Friday with mostly sunny skies, light north winds, and highs in the upper-50's to upper-60's.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Another trough is prog'd to move reach the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, which will lead to a questionable upper-level pattern this weekend with guidance showing varying solutions of evolution and placement. Slight chance of rain returns to southern and southeastern Oklahoma on Saturday night, but rain appears more likely over Texas. Then, a warming trend appears likely by Monday.

Thompson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Winds have become light across the area. The MVFR ceilings at KPNC are moving out and clearing skies should be there within the hour. There is not a strong model signal for fog tonight, but would not be surprised to see some isolated patches of fog with the light winds and clear skies, although drier air moving into the area should keep the potential relatively low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.