Area Forecast Discussion

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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXZS60 NSTU 190047 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 147 PM SST Fri Sep 18 2026

Discussion

Nearly 2 inches of rain were recorded overnight at WFO American Samoa due to the trough mentioned in the previous forecast. However, other locations across Tutuila and Aunu'u received no more than about half an inch. Expect widespread showers to continue through tonight before diminishing overnight as convection associated with the trough moves southeast. Model guidance weakens the trough over the weekend, though it is expected to linger in the area through next weekend.

Light and variable winds will persist through Sunday night before shifting predominantly east to southeast on Monday as a high pressure system builds from the southwest. Breezy conditions will follow and continue through the end of the week, while remnants from the trough could enhance moisture in the area at times.

Marine

The Small Craft Advisory and High Surf Advisory have been canceled. Wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoy have fallen below the advisory criteria of 8 feet and is expected to remain below advisory levels through Monday. Around that time, another south swell is forecast to move into the area, and winds are also expected to strengthen, returning high surf, strong rip currents, and rough ocean conditions through midweek.

PPG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None

TM