Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- For Today, scattered storms over CONTDVD region, isold elsewhere.

- Flash flood threat increases CONTDVD tomorrow (WED), with isold/sctd storms elsewhere. Continued hot for the plains.

- Flash flood threat increase for all of the burn scars THU and FRI. Biggest concern is THU.

- Hot with less POPS for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the rest of today, it will continue to be hot over the region with 100s over the lower Ark Rvr Valley with M/U90s over rest of plains. 85-90 over the valleys. As for precip, very isold showers over the plains with isolated storms over the S Mtns/valleys. Overall best chance of showers will be over the San Juans where scattered activity is anticipated later this afternoon/early evening.

For tomorrow, with winds will dramatically shift throughout the column. Winds over the last week or so have been from a deep easterly component. However the ridge aloft pushes off to the southeast, and flow becomes southwesterly at all levels for most of tomorrow. This will push the monsoon plume eastward and we will see a much better chance of storms across most of the region, especially along the CONTDVD, the San Luis Valley the Pikes Peak region and the greater EL Paso county region. Some of the rain with this activity tomorrow could be heavy. Flash Flooding threat will increase tomorrow, especially for the willow burn area.

It will continue to be hot across the plains tomorrow and 100s are likely once again from Pueblo east to the KS border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday will be our best chance of showers and thunderstorms as the monsoon flow will be enhanced by a mid level disturbance in the moderate NW Flow aloft. The Flash flood threat this day will be high at any of the burn sites, but the Aspen Acres will especially be under the gun due to the moist unstable upslope flow which will affect the mtns/plains interface

For Friday, scattered to likely showers and storms will continue over the mtns and valleys, but the airmass over the plains will likely be more stable and only isold showers and storms are expected. The rain could be heavy and burn scar flash flooding threat will continue. Friday should be the "coolest" day across the fcst area.

For the weekend...flow aloft weakens. Quite a bit of moisture will be trapped under the ridge that is fcst to rebuild over the region and we will see scattered storms will continue over the mtns, but over the plains it is likely to be dry and it will once again get quite hot with temps getting well into the 100s over a good part of the plains.

Next week it will be a bit cooler be a bit cooler with showers and storms over the mtns/valleys and isold storms plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible at KALS through 01z with gusty erratic outflow winds up to 35 kts and VFR cigs/vis if they are impacted. Otherwise, expect dry conditions for the remainder of the night at all three terminals. There is a low chance for some VCTS at KCOS this evening, but probabilities look too low to warrant putting it into the TAF at this point. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will gust to around 25 kts through 03z before decreasing through the evening. A better chance for thunderstorms will come on Wednesday withe PROB30s for both KALS and KCOS after 21 or 22z. A little lower confidence exists for KPUB so will leave the mention for thunder out of the TAF for now. -KT

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.