Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* A weather system will bring gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers through early Wednesday AM.

* Dry and mild weather returns Tuesday and continues through the weekend.

* The next chance for precipitation and gusty winds may arrive for Veterans Day or the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure moving into northern California will push a precipitation band into Lassen County southward to the Tahoe Basin and perhaps as far south as Tioga Pass in Mono County. Rain-snow lines are running at 6500-7500 feet based on mountain top observations and snow level profilers over northern CA. Snow lines drop as low as 5500-6500 feet near the end of precipitation event, leaving up to 2 inches of snow in the Sierra with pockets of 2-4 inches above 7500-8000 feet. Plan on at least a wet commute with snow on mountain passes this evening.

Across western NV, gusty surface winds to 35 mph will precede light rain late this afternoon into very early Wednesday morning. Snow lines could fall low enough to leave an inch of snow on elevated surfaces in areas above 5500-6000 feet such as the VC Highlands and foothills west of US-395/I-580.

Dry weather returns Tuesday through the weekend. Afternoon highs climb into the mid-upper 60s for the NV valleys over the weekend, with mid 50s to mid 60s in the Sierra.

Next weather system of note may reach the area around Veterans Day or the second half of next week with rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. Brong

AVIATION

Weather system is moving into the Sierra with ridgetops gusting at 50-70 kts causing mountain wave turbulence and LLWS along and east of the Sierra.

The window for precipitation has widened a bit to 03/21Z-04/12Z with showers moving west to east across the region. Activity should clear the Sierra and western NV terminals by 04/09z, then dissipate around LOL-NFL before 04/12z. Western NV terminals have a 20-30% chance of brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier showers. TVL and TRK has a 60-70% chance of MVFR and VFR conditions with rain changing to snow after 03z-06z. Snow accumulation will be light, less than 1 inch, through freezing temperatures could lead to icing on tarmacs and elevated surfaces.

If skies early Wednesday AM, KTRK and other northern Sierra valleys could see freezing fog 04/10-17Z.

Drier conditions return Tuesday with VFR conditions and spots of freezing fog in the northern Sierra valleys the remainder of the week. Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.