Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild weather is expected through the weekend with periods of breezy east to northeast winds along the Sierra crest.

* Low chances of rain and thunderstorms return to Mineral County and the eastern Sierra early next week. Warm and dry elsewhere. * Increased winds with low chances of rain and thunderstorms are favored late next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

For today, forecast guidance shows the CWA underneath an upper ridge between a low over ID/WY and a Pacific trough. By Sunday, the Pacific trough closes off into a low and makes its way onto the CA shore during the day. With this setup aloft, dry conditions are in the forecast through this weekend with daytime high temperatures gradually warming up. Winds will be relatively light with afternoon breezes gusting up to around 15-20 mph. An exception to this is seen at the Sierra crest where blended guidance shows east to northeast gusts up to around 30 mph possible tonight and tomorrow. When looking at the latest run of the HRRR model, smoke from the Dome Fire is seen moving back into Mono County tomorrow that could spread north into the Greater Tahoe region. While the aforementioned winds at the Sierra crest could limit smoke infiltrating into the CWA, those with increased sensitivity to poor air quality may want to monitor the air quality in their location just to be safe.

Model guidance then projects the western low moving across central CA on Monday before the low opens up into a trough passing through NV on Tuesday. With the projected track of this feature going through the southern portions of the CWA, the latest NBM guidance is giving Mineral County and the eastern Sierra a ~15-35% chance for showers on Monday afternoon and evening. There is also a ~10% chance for isolated showers during the same time stretching into the Tahoe region. QPF projections are ranging up to around a few tenths of an inch at the highest Sierra elevations. Some rumbles of thunder could occur within these showers, but chances are on the low side for now (<10%). Elsewhere, dry conditions will persist. Mostly dry conditions continue into Tuesday with far eastern portions of Churchill and Mineral County seeing a 10-20% chance for isolated showers in the afternoon.

Model guidance then shows the dry pattern and warming trend continuing into Wednesday and Thursday. NE CA and W NV valleys have high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s in the forecast while Sierra communities will be in the 70s. Extended guidance then shows an upper trough progressing over the west coast on Friday and going into next weekend. This pattern signals temperatures to trend cooler during this time with an uptick in wind speeds and a possible return of precipitation chances. As there is still some forecast uncertainty this far out, please continue to watch for updates as they become available. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites today and tonight. There is around a 20% chance for patchy fog near KTRK between 11-16Z Sunday. Winds are forecast to be on the lighter side today within the region with afternoon gusts up to around 15 kts possible. However, forecast models show E-NE winds gusting up to around 25 kts between 06-12Z Sunday and Monday which may result in minor mountain wave turbulence concerns along and west of the Sierra. Afternoon precipitation chances return to Mineral County and the eastern Sierra on Monday. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.