Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory and an Excessive Heat Warning are in effect until 7 PM today, with heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees in the Heat Advisory area and in excess of 110 in the Warning areas. The hottest conditions will occur across extreme southern Missouri and southeast Kansas.

- Low-confidence thunderstorm risk this afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of south- central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for an isolated wind gust up to 60 mph.

- Seasonable temperatures mid to late week, with rain chances returning late Thursday through Saturday morning.

- Heat is expected to return to the region early next week as the pattern looks similar to the start of this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A cold front was in the process of moving through the Ozarks early this afternoon and will continue to make its way south into this evening. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures were in the upper 80s to middle 90s with dew points in the middle to upper 70s. This has produced heat index values from 100 to in excess of 115 by noon. A Heat Advisory continues through 7 pm this evening as a result and an Excessive Heat Warning was issued earlier this morning for areas along far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas where heat index values in excess of 110 are expected.

Initial concerns were for increased cloud cover as the front moves through the region. So far this has not materialized and temperatures have been able to warm as the cooler and drier air was lagging well behind the front, as was expected in previous forecasts. However, forecast soundings showed strong mixing behind the boundary. So, though temperatures will remain high through the afternoon, heat indices should level off or even slightly decrease.

With the high temperatures and dew points, ample instability will develop this afternoon with as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE noted by CAMS. This in conjunction with weak lift from the front and some meager shear in the eastern Ozarks, might be enough to allow isolated storms to develop this afternoon and evening. For the most part, these would be sub-severe, but if a storms can become severe, damaging winds will be the primary concern with the best potential where SPC has a Marginal Risk for portions of Oregon, Shannon, and Howell.

Some relief from the heat will come tonight as temperatures finally fall out of the 70s for most of the region though some locations across far southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas will linger around 70 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A cooler and less humid airmass will be in place across the region Wednesday into Thursday thanks to todays cold front. This will allow for afternoon highs to be more seasonable with lower to middle 80s for central Missouri to the middle and upper 80s across southern Missouri with a few temperatures around the 90 mark. With dew points in the 60s, the overall conditions will feel significantly more reasonable than today.

By Thursday night into Friday, global models flatten the ridge as another shortwave trough moves through the area late Thursday. This will bring the next chances for rain into Friday. Rain chances continue to be between 30 to 70%, with the highest potential across central Missouri. Additionally, a secondary wave brings additional rain potential, from 20 to 60%, for Friday night into Saturday morning continuing the cooler forecast into the start of the weekend.

Synoptic and global models then begin to return the upper level ridge to the region on Sunday and into early next week setting up another round of heat potential. Some of the model 850mb forecast temperatures are in the 26 to 28 degree C range for next Monday and Tuesday. This is well in the future, though if this were to pan out, highs could once again climb into the middle to upper 90s to start next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the area this evening through the day on Tuesday. A front will continue to move south of the area this evening which will result in northerly winds occurring through the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-089>092-094. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ088- 093-095>098-101>106.