Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with highs in the middle to upper 90s and no rain to speak of.

- There will be low chances of showers and a few storms across the northwestern ArkLaTex on Monday, but coverage will be limited and accumulation mostly negligible.

- Temperatures should be trending slightly cooler by mid to late next week, with temperatures closer to seasonal averages, although generally still above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The upper level ridge, which has been dominating the weather pattern over our Four State region and responsible for the worsening drought and anomalous September heat, is still in place. However, there is a touch of good news - the ridge is weakening some and will continue the trend of temporarily weakening through the early part of next week. During this period of time, one or two weak disturbances on the southern fringe of a northern Rockies closed upper low will help flatten the aforementioned ridge and allow a weak cold front to sag down into our area. Moisture in the tropospheric column will generally increase later tomorrow and through Monday, which at least will result in more cloud cover than has been the case recently. Thinking optimistically, this sequence of events will bring at least low chances for measurable rainfall later tomorrow night through Monday evening, although mainly across the northwest half of the region. The Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms northwest of our coverage area tomorrow into tomorrow night associated with at least loosely organized thunderstorms developing along the mentioned cold front. However, the consensus of short range convection-allowing models suggests storms will lose intensity, if not entirely fall apart, before getting into far northwestern zones tomorrow night. If we are lucky, the incoming front on Monday will "overproduce" convection in our area and rain potential will increase in subsequent forecasts, but drought begets drought - which is why the chances for showers and storms on Monday currently are not at all impressive. Temperatures will remain well above normal through Monday, although peak heat indices mainly in the lower 100s should keep us front needing Heat Advisories.

Unfortunately, the upper level ridge will start to gain a foothold again later Tuesday through the rest of the workweek and should keep our region mostly, if not entirely, dry. Some bit of good news is that a slightly less-hot ("cooler" may be overselling it) air mass should be oozing south into the region following the weak cold frontal passage. We are currently advertising highs ranging from the lower 90s north to mid 90s south from Wednesday into the start of next weekend with low temperatures mainly ranging from the low to mid 60s north to around 70 in the south over that same period. It is a little too early to say we are entirely done with Heat Advisories until next year, but I'm crossing my fingers and saying "maybe".

Longer range NWP guidance suggests we could get the pattern changing up some, although not yet dramatically, 10 or so days down the road. Hopefully this can actually happen and increase at least periodic rain opportunities and a better crack at seasonally normal temperatures. /50/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for all sites through the period, with limited cloud cover this afternoon thanks to dry air aloft. The main story will be some slight wind shifts before a greater shift southwesterly late tomorrow morning. But winds are expected to stay light, generally below 10 kts. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.