Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A heat advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon and early evening across the Big Country, Heartland and Mason county.

- Forecast afternoon highs and heat indices will likely reach heat advisory criteria across portions of the forecast area Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An upper level ridge currently over Colorado and western Kansas will drift south into northwest Texas by tomorrow afternoon. This will result in a continuation of hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas again on Wednesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the Big Country through early this evening, where heat index values will approach 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for tomorrow as well, but will expand across the Heartland counties and also include Mason county. Heat index values tomorrow afternoon will range between 105 and 108 degrees in the advisory area, highest over the Heartland. Temperatures tonight will be warm, with overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Hot and dry weather will persist across the area through the extended period, as high pressure dominates. Highs will range from the upper 90s across the south, and between 100 and 106 from the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Heat Advisories will likely be needed each day through the extended period, primarily from the Concho Valley and Heartland north into the Big Country, where heat indices between 105 and 108 are expected.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Fisher- Haskell-Jones-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Brown-Callahan- Coleman-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan-San Saba- Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.