Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 138 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Scattered showers with some thunderstorms overspread parts of the Tri-State area today from an approaching front. A couple of storms may be strong.

- A high risk of rip currents in Walton, Bay, and Franklin County beaches.

- Unseasonably warm/muggy conditions give way to cooler weather late this weekend and persists into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 138 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Late-night satellite and surface observations show a near 1000-mb cyclone centered over the Midwest with a trailing cold front extending down the NW Gulf coast. Convection is apparent along/ahead of the frontal boundary in addition to scattered showers streaming from the Northern Gulf into the MS Valley. The upper wave attendant to this system is also lifting NE into the OH Valley, per latest water vapor imagery. Meanwhile, high pressure anchored off the Mid- Atlantic coast will continue to usher in moist southeasterly low- level flow across the region, thus keeping conditions unseasonably warm/muggy.

The axes of precipitation focuses the most over SE AL, FL Panhandle, and SW GA today (including the I-75 corridor), then shifts north tonight. Overall, expect broken lines of scattered showers with potential for embedded isolated thunderstorms capable of strong- gusty winds. Although fleeting upper support should limit severe weather potential, a moist airmass, the front's slow moving nature, and paralleling southerly 850-300-mb mean flow may foster locally heavy rain capable of isolated nuisance flooding.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70s to low 80s amidst mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows are expected be in the mid/upper 60s, which are about 15-20 degrees warmer than normal of early November.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 138 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Moist southwesterly 1000-700-mb flow associated with the lingering front brings streaming showers to the region from SW to NE Thursday- Thursday night, albeit limited coverage. By Friday, a drying trend begins as post-frontal northwesterly low-level winds usher in dew points falling into the 50s the Wiregrass into the western FL Panhandle and parts of SW GA.

More pronounced dryness and cooling occurs this weekend thanks to reinforcing shots of cool/dry continental air. There are some indications by models that a Gulf disturbance may develop early next week and bring a renewed chance of rain, but chances are currently on the low side.

High temperatures Thursday-Friday are forecast to mainly be in the low 80s, then drop to the 70s Saturday-Tuesday. The warmest period is expected to be Thursday night into Friday morning when temperatures merely drop to the low/mid 60s. Widespread 50s arrive Saturday AM, followed by readings primarily in the 40s to start the work week. Isolated upper 30s also appear possible!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Cigs expected to drop to IFR at ABY and DHN and possibly VLD later this morning. Rounds of SHRA will continue overnight as well. Cigs will slowly rise late Wednesday morning into the afternoon back to VFR. SHRA will slowly move from west to east across the area with the best chances at DHN and ABY. Generally E to SE winds around 7-10 kt are expected through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Gentle to moderate breezes out of the south to southeast through today, then become light on Thursday. Gentle breezes return on Friday, and steadily veer from southwesterly to northwesterly by the afternoon. Post-frontal north to northwesterly moderate breezes overspread the waters this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A moist airmass and rain in the forecast precludes fire weather concerns the next couple days. Pockets of wetting rains are possible along/west of the Apalachicola-Flint River basin today when a weakening front limps through the region. Winds are from the south to SE today, southwesterly tomorrow, and northwesterly on Friday. A drying trend takes place heading into the weekend with cooler temperatures.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 138 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Widespread light rainfall amounts are forecast over the next several days. However, there is some potential for locally heavy rain today, which may produce nuisance flooding or ponding of water in urban, low-lying, and poor- drainage areas. There are overall no significant hydrological concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.