Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Temperatures near or below seasonal averages into the upcoming weekend, then begin to warm into early next week. - Rain chances increase on Thursday with another cold frontal passage; mostly dry weather is forecast Friday and through the remainder of the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mid/upper level trof axis over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late Tuesday evening will continue to slide off to the northeast and exit Wednesday morning. Cloud cover associated with the backside of the disturbance is forecast to remain over parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Wednesday morning before moving out with the departing trof. These conditions look to keep temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s for lows Wednesday morning.

During the day Wednesday, westerly winds remain common for the CWA ahead of an another approaching shortwave. With the scattering of clouds forecast Wednesday afternoon, temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s look to be probable.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The shortwave out west is progged to become more of a positively tilted open wave as it moves into the central/southern Plains Thursday. Ahead of this wave, weak southerly low level flow looks to return Wednesday night into Thursday before an associated cold front drops southeast into the CWA during the day Thursday. This period of return flow will open a brief window for moisture advection back into the region, which will aid in rain chances returning Thursday afternoon/evening. With limited moisture return, rainfall amounts should remain light. Latest model solutions continue to highlight little instability ahead of the shortwave, and as such will continue to keep thunder potentials less than 10 percent.

Slightly below seasonal average temperatures set in Friday in the wake of the departing shortwave and look to continue into Saturday. Beyond Saturday, extended models differ with the track of another wave that could move through the Plains. For now will hold off on adding any PoPs into the forecast for the weekend, though it is something to keep an eye on. If the wave can remain north and east of the CWA, then a return southerly winds and warmer temperatures could develop for early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR ceilings will prevail for the next several hours at the NW AR sites, with gradual improvement at BVO within the first couple of hours. Data continue to advertise another, more brief round of MVFR ceilings at BVO and also FSM around daybreak that should not last more than a couple of hours at either site. West to northwest winds at 7 to 10 kts should prevail during the daylight hours, with lighter speeds after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.