ABQ Area Forecast Discussion 35525a27-77e7-4a48-bc58-dffc5e4218c6

000 FXUS65 KABQ 192332 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Heavy rainfall, lightning, hail, and gusty winds from thunderstorms continues through this evening mainly over central and western NM, with isolated coverage over eastern NM.

- Flash flood risk from a surge of monsoon moisture arrives over most of New Mexico Tuesday through Friday after a break Sunday and Monday. Prolonged, repeated periods of heavy rain favored.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the Monsoon moisture plume getting shoved east by dry westerlies rounding the base of an upper low/trough, centered over the ID/UT border. However, sufficient moisture remains for a round of robust convection as evidenced by the latest radar imagery and the 18Z KABQ sounding showing a 0.94" PWAT, which is above the 90th percentile for the calendar day. Latest CAMs progress this round of convection east into the middle and lower RGV, including the Santa Fe Metro, later this afternoon and then continue it east beyond the central mountain chain and into the adjacent eastern highlands this evening before diminishing. Sufficient shear and instability reside for a few strong to near-severe storms, with small hail and strong/erratic wind gusts likely. Storms are moving at a decent clip of 20-30mph today, which should limit the flash flood threat to training storms and the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros.

Dry air aloft will overtake NM tonight, with PWATs dropping rapidly. However, a relatively moist near-surface layer will remain and with wet grounds a decent setup for fog Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is highest in the RGV although inflated by anticipated rainfall later today. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required early Sunday morning. Sunday will be a down day a PWATs crash to the 25th percentile, which represents insufficient moisture to sustain convection.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A Pacific low will approach slowly from over central CA on Monday, while a backdoor front makes westward progress into eastern NM. Any convection that sparks Monday will be behind the backdoor front and closer to the TX/OK borders where sufficient moisture will reside. PWATs will ramp up dramatically Monday night into Tuesday as a renewed Monsoon moisture plume stands up over the region with the Pacific low on slow approach and the upper high centered over the TX coast. The Pacific low is forecast to fill and lift rapidly northeast toward the central/northern Rockies on Wednesday as the upper high remains anchored along the upper Gulf coast, which will favor a continued stream of moisture northward into NM. PWATs on Tue/Wed are forecast to challenge daily record values and the period is looking rather wet with widespread soaking rainfall. A flash flood threat will ramp-up Tue/Wed across much of the area and especially on/near area burn scars. The WPC has include much of our area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Tue/Wed. Forecast uncertainty increases from Thursday onward, with the model consensus now favoring keeping tropical system offshore of MX and south of the Baja Peninsula through Saturday as the upper high ridges westward over northern MX and keeps NM from realizing a tropical moisture fetch. That said, south central, east central and southeast NM look to receive the greatest rainfall amounts from Tue-Thu, with qpf ranging from 2-3" and locally as has high as 6"!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push into portions of the Rio Grande Valley from the Continental Divide this hour, continuing the need for TEMPO and PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG into this evening. Isolated coverage of thunderstorms exists over parts of the highlands and eastern plains of NM as well. IFR/MVFR conditions with a few storms capable of producing localized LIFR conditions from heavy rain and hail are the main aviation threats. Shower and thunderstorm activity clears out near the midnight hour tonight, with a few spots potentially seeing categorical impacts from fog development early Sunday morning. This will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain. VFR looks to prevail Sunday after any fog and mist burns off alongside modest westerly breezes most areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as an active late Monsoon season pattern persists. Good chances for wetting rainfall will impact central and northern areas this afternoon/evening, followed by a downturn in storm coverage Sun/Mon as the westerlies bring in a drier airmass. A renewed Monsoon moisture plume will stand up over the region Tuesday and continue through the end of the week, with high humidity and good chances for wetting rainfall as the upper high remains centered along the upper Gulf coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Location	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day
	Temperatures				Chance of Precipitation
Farmington......................	50 ℉	80 ℉	47 ℉	80 ℉	5%	0%	0%	0%
Dulce...........................	40 ℉	78 ℉	38 ℉	78 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Cuba............................	47 ℉	75 ℉	47 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Gallup..........................	44 ℉	78 ℉	44 ℉	78 ℉	5%	0%	0%	0%
El Morro........................	45 ℉	74 ℉	45 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Grants..........................	46 ℉	78 ℉	46 ℉	77 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Quemado.........................	48 ℉	76 ℉	49 ℉	77 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Magdalena.......................	54 ℉	78 ℉	54 ℉	77 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Datil...........................	50 ℉	75 ℉	51 ℉	75 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Reserve.........................	52 ℉	81 ℉	52 ℉	81 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Glenwood........................	59 ℉	86 ℉	60 ℉	87 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Chama...........................	43 ℉	71 ℉	42 ℉	72 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Los Alamos......................	53 ℉	76 ℉	53 ℉	75 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Pecos...........................	49 ℉	78 ℉	48 ℉	76 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Cerro/Questa....................	47 ℉	75 ℉	46 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Red River.......................	42 ℉	65 ℉	40 ℉	65 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Angel Fire......................	33 ℉	71 ℉	30 ℉	70 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Taos............................	46 ℉	78 ℉	44 ℉	77 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Mora............................	46 ℉	77 ℉	45 ℉	73 ℉	20%	0%	0%	10%
Espanola........................	52 ℉	82 ℉	51 ℉	81 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Santa Fe........................	52 ℉	77 ℉	51 ℉	76 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Santa Fe Airport................	50 ℉	79 ℉	50 ℉	79 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Foothills...........	57 ℉	81 ℉	58 ℉	81 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Heights.............	57 ℉	82 ℉	57 ℉	81 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Valley..............	57 ℉	83 ℉	57 ℉	83 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque West Mesa...........	56 ℉	82 ℉	57 ℉	81 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Belen...........................	56 ℉	84 ℉	56 ℉	84 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Bernalillo......................	55 ℉	83 ℉	55 ℉	83 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Bosque Farms....................	55 ℉	84 ℉	55 ℉	84 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Corrales........................	56 ℉	83 ℉	56 ℉	83 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Los Lunas.......................	55 ℉	85 ℉	55 ℉	84 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Placitas........................	55 ℉	81 ℉	55 ℉	80 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Rio Rancho......................	55 ℉	82 ℉	56 ℉	82 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Socorro.........................	60 ℉	86 ℉	61 ℉	86 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........	52 ℉	76 ℉	52 ℉	76 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Tijeras.........................	54 ℉	79 ℉	54 ℉	78 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Edgewood........................	51 ℉	80 ℉	51 ℉	79 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Moriarty/Estancia...............	46 ℉	81 ℉	47 ℉	80 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Clines Corners..................	51 ℉	78 ℉	51 ℉	75 ℉	30%	0%	0%	5%
Mountainair.....................	54 ℉	78 ℉	53 ℉	78 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Gran Quivira....................	54 ℉	79 ℉	54 ℉	79 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Carrizozo.......................	61 ℉	83 ℉	60 ℉	83 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Ruidoso.........................	55 ℉	77 ℉	54 ℉	76 ℉	20%	0%	0%	5%
Capulin.........................	49 ℉	77 ℉	50 ℉	71 ℉	20%	0%	30%	20%
Raton...........................	48 ℉	82 ℉	49 ℉	76 ℉	10%	0%	10%	10%
Springer........................	48 ℉	84 ℉	49 ℉	78 ℉	20%	0%	10%	10%
Las Vegas.......................	48 ℉	78 ℉	47 ℉	74 ℉	20%	0%	0%	10%
Clayton.........................	56 ℉	83 ℉	56 ℉	74 ℉	20%	5%	30%	40%
Roy.............................	54 ℉	82 ℉	54 ℉	74 ℉	20%	0%	10%	10%
Conchas.........................	60 ℉	90 ℉	59 ℉	81 ℉	20%	5%	5%	5%
Santa Rosa......................	61 ℉	87 ℉	58 ℉	80 ℉	20%	5%	0%	5%
Tucumcari.......................	61 ℉	88 ℉	59 ℉	80 ℉	20%	5%	10%	20%
Clovis..........................	61 ℉	88 ℉	60 ℉	82 ℉	20%	5%	10%	40%
Portales........................	63 ℉	89 ℉	62 ℉	84 ℉	20%	10%	10%	50%
Fort Sumner.....................	62 ℉	91 ℉	61 ℉	85 ℉	20%	10%	0%	10%
Roswell.........................	63 ℉	94 ℉	63 ℉	90 ℉	30%	5%	0%	5%
Picacho.........................	61 ℉	88 ℉	60 ℉	84 ℉	30%	10%	0%	5%
Elk.............................	57 ℉	85 ℉	57 ℉	82 ℉	20%	10%	0%	5%

ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.

SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...24

Area Forecast Discussion