Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 - Many rivers across northwestern and north central New Mexico have peaked and will continue to fall below bankfull stages through Wednesday and Thursday.

- Minor winter travel impacts will skirt the Colorado border Wednesday night into Thursday morning, favoring Raton Pass. - Drier conditions will persist for the remainder of the region through the rest of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

High clouds will continue to stream across the state tonight ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance from the west. Some clearing is expected across portions of northeastern New Mexico overnight, which could allow for patchy fog development in valley locations where recent rainfall has left saturated soils in its wake. Confidence in fog development is on the low side at this time as guidance still continues to hint at limited potential for reduced visibilities.

The aforementioned disturbance will cross into the central Rockies by the afternoon, bringing with it breezy west- northwesterly winds across much of central and western New Mexico. Expect sustained winds between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, particularly across higher terrain.

As the upper low continues its trek eastward during the evening hours, precipitation will remain confined to northernmost zones. A combination of modest mid-level moisture, orographic lift, and a strengthening backdoor front will allow for a brief period of snow along the Raton Ridge. Light accumulations are possible near Raton Pass and portions of US-64 into early Thursday morning. Current guidance suggests most likely amounts of 1-2 inches, with reasonable locally higher-end amounts of 2-3 inches. Widespread impacts are not anticipated, but brief visibility restrictions and slick travel conditions could develop. Elsewhere, precipitation chances will remain minimal.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

The remainder of the period will be pretty benign as we transition to generally quieter and drier conditions. A weak upper-level disturbance may bring in limited moisture and instability by late Friday into Saturday, leading to low-end rain chances.

Guidance also continues to show disagreement in regards to the evolution of a possible cutoff low near Baja California. The GFS seems to be the outlier here, with the broader consensus favoring a weaker system and predominately dry conditions across the state. High temperatures will remain within a few degrees of normal, while lows trend slightly above.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Calm winds tonight with isolated patchy fog possible over parts of the northwestern highlands along the Continental Divide and toward KFMN, and along the northeastern highlands from KRTN to KLVS early Wednesday morning. The further extent could reach into parts of the Pecos River Valley toward KROW. However, confidence remains notably low for this to reach any TAF terminal, and have not included any category reductions for this. VFR thus remains forecast to persist thru the current TAF period. Southerly to southwesterly winds will pick Wednesday afternoon, becoming breezy in some locations.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are expected over the next week. Periods of poor ventilation will be the primary concern across western and central areas today and Thursday, with more widespread issues by Friday into the weekend. There is a slight chance for precipitation across north-central and northeastern New Mexico late today, but generally dry conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday. Breezy conditions across northern areas will gradually subside by Friday. An upper-level system may move through the region Friday into the early weekend, but precipitation will be limited.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.