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000 FXUS65 KABQ 212321 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 521 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 512 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.
- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.
- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Water vapor imagery shows an impressive closed Low over southwest New Mexico that is dragging deep, subtropical northward with it. Showers with a few storms have been occurring since early this morning and afternoon destabilization has increased the coverage of storms. Rainfall rates today will be very efficient for the desert southwest, with localized rates as high as 2"/hour. Furthermore, areas including Gallup and Farmington could see repeated rounds of storms with heavy rainfall rates slowly rotating around the north side of the Low. Storms will likely continue into the evening hours as the forcing from the disturbance shifts northward. While severe weather is not of huge concern with this setup, wet microbursts could create very localized damaging outflow wind gusts in the western half of the state this afternoon and evening.
The disturbance over southwest NM today will continue its trek northward into the Four Corners area Wednesday as moisture continues to surge northward. This will result in different storm motions than today, with storms generally moving from south to north. While many of the same areas across western NM still have high rain chances, the pattern change should result in different areas getting hit compared to previous days. This flow direction is favorable for the Ruidoso area burn scars as well so a Flash Flood Watch was issued for that area for Wednesday afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
The upper high over the TX Panhandle will move into southern NM on Thursday, while the aformentioned disturbance rotates around it into Colorado. Showers and storms will focus over the northern mountains on Thursday, with much less coverage underneath the ridge thanks to mid-level warming and drier air working its way in from the east. A few severe storms could develop with updrafts that roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where there will be ample instability. The center of the ridge will then setup over central NM on Friday and Saturday, with moisture recycling around it. Moisture levels will be near seasonal normals, but flash flooding is a concern considering the slow and erratic storm motions over the high terrain, including the Sacramento Mountains. 500 mb heights between 596-598 dam should help to limit instability somewhat, but hot afternoon temps and PWATs between 1-1.25" could counteract this.
Heat will also become a concern late week into the weekend, especially across the eastern plains where highs will reach into the low 100s each day. Overnight lows will be above average as well (low to mid-70s) so there will not be significant relief from the heat at night. High temps will be pushing 100F along the Rio Grande Valley as well, including in Albuquerque so heat risk concerns will also extend into central NM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to track northwestward across central and western NM through this evening, with scattered showers persisting overnight across northwest NM. Through the evening, IFR vsbys in heavy rainfall (and briefly lower vsbys), gusty winds to 35kt and frequent lightning are expected with the strongest storms. Any showers that persist overnight will wane around sunrise, but another crop of showers and thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday afternoon. These storms will again favor western and central NM but storm motions will be toward the north or north-northeast. Storms will again be capable of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, gusty winds and frequent lightning.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next seven days. Scattered to widespread storms will continue to focus over the western NM today and again on Wednesday, with coverage shifting to northern NM on Thursday. The center of the ridge will then shift over central NM Friday into the weekend, resulting in scattered slow-moving showers and storms that will favor the high terrain each afternoon and the surrounding lower elevations during the late afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will trend hotter the next few days, particularly in eastern NM where highs will be in the low 100s each afternoon.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Farmington...................... | 65 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 70% | 30% | 70% | 10% |
| Dulce........................... | 55 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 70% | 60% | 70% | 50% |
| Cuba............................ | 58 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 50% | 20% | 50% | 20% |
| Gallup.......................... | 56 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 50% | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| El Morro........................ | 56 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 50% | 70% | 50% | 20% |
| Grants.......................... | 59 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 40% | 30% |
| Quemado......................... | 57 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 40% | 60% | 30% | 30% |
| Magdalena....................... | 63 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Datil........................... | 57 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 20% | 20% |
| Reserve......................... | 55 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 50% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Glenwood........................ | 56 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 60% | 30% | 20% | 5% |
| Chama........................... | 53 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 50% | 60% | 60% | 70% |
| Los Alamos...................... | 64 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Pecos........................... | 57 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 40% | 0% |
| Cerro/Questa.................... | 56 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Red River....................... | 48 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Angel Fire...................... | 44 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 10% | 70% | 50% | 10% |
| Taos............................ | 57 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Mora............................ | 55 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 30% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Espanola........................ | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Santa Fe........................ | 62 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 30% | 5% |
| Santa Fe Airport................ | 61 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 30% | 5% |
| Albuquerque Foothills........... | 64 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Heights............. | 67 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 5% |
| Albuquerque Valley.............. | 66 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 5% |
| Albuquerque West Mesa........... | 67 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 30% | 5% |
| Belen........................... | 65 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Bernalillo...................... | 66 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 30% | 5% |
| Bosque Farms.................... | 63 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Corrales........................ | 66 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 40% | 10% | 30% | 5% |
| Los Lunas....................... | 63 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Placitas........................ | 66 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 20% | 0% |
| Rio Rancho...................... | 67 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 40% | 10% | 30% | 5% |
| Socorro......................... | 69 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 20% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... | 61 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 30% | 40% | 20% | 0% |
| Tijeras......................... | 61 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 40% | 20% | 0% |
| Edgewood........................ | 59 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Moriarty/Estancia............... | 55 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Clines Corners.................. | 58 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Mountainair..................... | 59 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 5% | 0% |
| Gran Quivira.................... | 59 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Carrizozo....................... | 65 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 10% | 0% |
| Ruidoso......................... | 59 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Capulin......................... | 58 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 10% | 5% | 10% | 30% |
| Raton........................... | 56 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Springer........................ | 59 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Las Vegas....................... | 58 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Clayton......................... | 66 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Roy............................. | 63 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Conchas......................... | 68 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 103 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| Santa Rosa...................... | 65 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Tucumcari....................... | 70 ℉ | 102 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 104 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clovis.......................... | 69 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 102 ℉ | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Portales........................ | 70 ℉ | 101 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 103 ℉ | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fort Sumner..................... | 69 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 102 ℉ | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Roswell......................... | 72 ℉ | 101 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 104 ℉ | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Picacho......................... | 65 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| Elk............................. | 62 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-202-205-208- 209.
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.
Flood Watch Wednesday afternoon for NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...34