Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated showers remain over the Interior tomorrow with an area of light rain in the Fortymile and around Eagle Sunday morning. 0.10" to 0.25" of rain expected in Eagle.

- Showers continue on Monday, especially east of Fairbanks over the Yukon Flats. - Temperatures will be near average through Sunday with a drop early next week. Most spots struggle to exceed the low 40s during the daytime and lows will reach near or below freezing beginning Monday night.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers linger along the coast through Monday. The interior is mostly dry from Sunday onwards.

- Today is warmest in the Interior with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s. Temps along the coast will be chilly, in the upper 30s to low 40s. 40 to 45 degrees everywhere from Sunday through early next week.

- A strong Bering Sea Low arrives Thursday with potential impacts being moderate to heavy rain, strong wind and coastal impacts which are dependent on the track.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers along the Chukchi Sea Coast today and tomorrow with accumulations around 1 inch or less.

- Light snow for the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast Saturday evening through Sunday. Snowfall totals remain light around 1 to 3 inches. Highest in the Brooks Range.

- A mix of rain and snow showers continues into early next week with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing.

- A weak front moves through beginning late Tuesday, bringing light snow with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible in the Brooks Range.

SYNOPSIS

A relative lull in the active pattern sets up with a dearth of strong systems impacting our area until we approach the end of the upcoming week. A low in the Gulf of AK will move into south central, sending a weak front northward which keeps some scattered showers through the interior through the middle of the weekend. Scattered snow and rain showers will linger along the W Coast as onshore NW flow brings in oceanic moisture. Relatively drier weather through the first half of the week, with showers becoming more isolated in nature. A weak arctic front moves into the north slope through the middle of the week, bringing some chances of minor snow accumulations to the Brooks Range. A strong system moves into the southern Bering late in the week, bringing widespread wind and rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A relative lull in the active pattern for parts of south central and the western interior through the short term. Satellite and radar as of the time of writing show ocean effect showers moving in along the NW Coast, being driven by cold air advection from the arctic moving over the still comparatively warm waters of the Bering and the Chukchi Sea. A decaying frontal band which moved through the central interior during the morning hours on Saturday will move further north across the Brooks Range and the North Slope Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Expect minor snow accumulations (1-3") for areas at elevation like Atigun Pass and Anaktuvuk.

Through the remainder of the weekend, the weather remains on the less active side - though not quiet. A low moving into south central AK from the Gulf will send a weak front moving northward. This front will bring scattered showers for the central and eastern interior on Sunday, particularly for the Yukon Flats. Monday will see the aforementioned front stall over the interior, with chances of showers lingering through the day, and the front itself receiving some additional moisture support from the by now all-but-dead low over south central. Still not expecting to see anything in the way of significant precip totals though.

Tuesday will prove to be a mixed bag of conditions. Across the western, central, and even eastern interior, shower coverage will be diminishing through the morning as a ridge builds over Western AK. Dry weather is likely for most locations south of the Brooks Range by the latter half of the day. A weak arctic front will ridge along the northern axis of the building ridge, and sweep through the North Slope and the Brooks Range late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing chances of minor snowfall accumulations - mainly for areas at elevation. For additional information, see the long term forecast discussion.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Model guidance is slowly starting to converge in regards to the low in the Bering on Thursday/Friday. Both GFS and ECMWF ensembles have been favoring ridging in the Central/Eastern Interior, as well as a weaker/farther south North Pacific High, which would track the low to the general vicinity of St. Matthew Island before it stalls. This would keep areas of potentially significant coastal flooding south of the Yukon Delta, though minor coastal impacts are possible in the Delta and in the Northern Norton Sound. Strong winds are likely along the West Coast south of Wales as the low moves in on Thursday. There will be an area of heavy precipitation somewhere on the West Coast and in the Western Interior, but discrepancies in low location and level of moisture make it difficult to say where and how much. Models are in decent agreement that the ridge over Alaska will move east Friday into Saturday, allowing the low to make landfall. However, there is still a lack of consensus as to where it makes landfall. A track east into/around Bristol Bay is more likely, but a track north towards the Norton Sound cannot be ruled out at this time.

Elsewhere in Northern Alaska, the ridge over the state late week will bring about a brief calm period for the Central and Eastern Interior, especially on Thursday. With mostly clear and calm conditions, Wednesday and Thursday mornings will likely have the coldest temperatures so far this season. Lows at/below freezing are likely for the entire region. These clear overnight conditions could also support patchy overnight fog in Central/Eastern Interior valleys. Meanwhile, conditions remain unsettled on the North Slope through the end of next week as a series of shortwaves bring light snow showers through next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The strong low in the Bering continues to trend south which would lead to a lesser extent of coastal impacts for our area. Currently, the favored wind direction is south/southeast which for most areas, would lean towards some higher water than normal, but nothing too concerning. The Yukon Delta is the exception where water levels may be higher in this scenario. As far as exact impacts, once we have a better grasp on the track and position of the low, there will be more details. We will continue to monitor this as it evolves.

FIRE WEATHER

No major fire weather concerns are expected across the region through the weekend as cool temperatures and elevated relative humidity levels persist through the weekend. High temperatures will hold in the 40s to low 50s across valley locations Sunday and Monday before dropping into the lower 40s midweek, while minimum relative humidity values remain above 50 percent. Chances of precipitation reach 50 to 80 percent Sunday through Monday, followed by a transition to rain and snow showers on Tuesday. Light and variable winds persist Saturday night through Monday.

HYDROLOGY

A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Chena River upstream of Moose Creek Dam. While we aren't expecting widespread flooding, minor pooling and ponding of water is expected in low-lying, flood prone areas through weekend. Water levels have crested in Fairbanks this afternoon then gradually drop thereafter.

AFG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-802- 806- 850-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ804-853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807>809-817-855. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ856.