Area Forecast Discussion

UPDATE

Aviation section updated for 18z taf issuance. Also wind advisories have been issued for many areas of the panhandle in anticipation of the front incoming for this evening. The high wind watches that were up for Haines and Skagway were also changed to wind advisories as we are expecting mostly sub 60 mph gusts at both places. However we can not completely rule out one or two gusts at Skagway that do reach 60 mph, but confidence is rather low on that possibility.

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems to impact the region through the weekend, with heavy rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- A Flood Watch was issued for the northern panhandle due to heavy rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- A High Wind Watch was issued for the Skagway, and Haines areas for wind gusts up to around 60 mph Sunday. Yakutat has a Wind Advisory with gusts to 50 mph Sunday.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

SHORT TERM.../ through Monday night / The remains of last night's front with waves on it, is finishing moving through the panhandle this morning. Expect a brief break from winds and heavier rain today. The next frontal band is wrapping up nicely about the central low that is about about 200 NM south of Kodiak Island. That system is tracking into the central gulf and should be rolling into the Northeast Gulf Coast tonight. The main weather front will be leading the way with strong winds to the coastal areas, expecting gusts to 50 mph or so around Yakutat. The front will sweep into the panhandle and this will push the wind speeds up through the inner channels. Northern Lynn Canal may be pushing to gusts of 60 mph tomorrow afternoon so a High Wind Watch remains in effect.

High levels of expected ARIs from the guidance for the northern panhandle with moderate to heavy rainfall. A flood watch is out for the rivers and streams over the Northern panhandle area.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...A more active pattern continues into next week as a low redevelops in the Gulf Monday into Tuesday, with continued onshore flow between waves of precipitation through early to midweek. Once the low redevelops, it will bring another more organized band of precipitation through Tuesday followed by a few less organized waves Wednesday into Thursday. The confidence on this midweek low looks to be a bit more aligned today between models, with the more organized low center location and main precipitation band moving through Tuesday. Some uncertainty still remains on timing and rainfall amounts, especially due to the more showery regime expected midweek and spread on the low's track. The low also becomes more poorly formed and uncertain Wednesday onwards, as some solutions keep it stronger for longer and moving towards the panhandle while others have it falling apart further offshore or just south of the panhandle. Generally though, rainy conditions and elevated winds are expected to continue through midweek, only beginning to diminish by late week as this low begins to fall apart.

The convective potential remains for Monday along the coast, keeping the chance for thunderstorms developing over the waters and pushing into the outer coastline through the day, gradually shifting southward as the day goes on before diminishing into the night.

AVIATION.../Through 18z Sunday/...Not very good aviation conditions this weekend. Between Saturday and Sunday, Saturday is looking like the best (though still not very good) flying weather overall as we will be in between major systems with some minor waves moving through. Currently MVFR conditions rule the panhandle with some isolated IFR due to either ceilings or Vis as a weaker low comes ashore near Cape Decision late this morning. Gusty winds are also apparent with highest surface winds (up to 35 kt) over the southern panhandle. Into this afternoon, winds and precip will diminish a little as we fall in between the low this morning and the stronger front coming in from the west tonight (still will have gusty winds and MVFR ceilings for most areas). However by this evening and overnight we will start to see the next stronger front start moving into the area. Expect ceilings and possibly vis to drop to IFR or lower at times through the night due to heavier rain. Winds will be problematic as well with surface winds gusting to 35 kt or more for most areas overnight, and winds aloft will be increasing to 45 to possibly 50 kt out of the SE especially over the outer coast and southern panhandle. So expect low level wind shear (mainly of the speed variety) and turbulence overnight.

Into Sunday, the main front will have moved through, but strong SW onshore flow will be coming in behind it with a rather unstable atmosphere. Winds will still be gusty for many areas, but especially for the northern inner channels as southerly winds push up through that area. Low level wind shear potential does diminish, but areas along the outer coast could see some directional shear if surface winds do not switch to more SW as upper level winds do. The unstable atmospheric conditions will bring a new concern into the area. widespread rain showers are expected with quite a few of the stronger showers having the potential to produce lightning especially along the outer coast starting early Sunday morning and lasting through the day. A few of these storms could be strong enough to produce locally higher wind gusts and maybe some small hail.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): There will be short lull in the marine winds, still remaining around 10 to 15 kts, until the next/stronger low pressure system moves through the gulf. Overall winds will once again increase Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a low around 980 mb pushes into the northern gulf. Southernly and easterly winds across the channels will be around 20 to 30 kts with the strongest winds over Lynn Canal and Clarence strait up to 35 kts. For Clarence Strait, the strongest winds are anticipated for Saturday night. Then Lynn canal will start to see winds continue to increase Sunday morning with strongest winds most likely Sunday afternoon. Winds then diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Waves and winds have already subsided and diminish and will continue Sat morning to 4 to 6 ft. The next strong low pressure system is not far behind as winds and waves once again increase and build late Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. This low will bring wide spread gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts, with gusts up to 55 kts, and wave heights of 15 to 20 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf into Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318- 319. Flood Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ320>325-327. Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-644-651-652-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>643- 661-662-672.