Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Thunderstorm chances today are mostly eastern focused, but a few showers and storms could make their way out of New Mexico. Storms in the east today have the highest chance of becoming severe.

- Thunderstorms tomorrow have a higher chance of occurring overnight opposed to during the day. Some storms during the night time also have a chance of becoming severe.

- This week, lower temperatures and persistent rain chances dominate the extended outlook. Chances for severe storms and excessive rainfall will need to be monitored.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

We are watching the progression of a cold front moving through our CWA today that will allow for convection later this afternoon. This initial wave has a SW/NE orientation and will be moving south through the course of the day. Ahead of this front, favorable moisture and instability are present to allow for scattered thunderstorms to generate. Reasonable 20-30 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and steep low level lapse rate will allow for a few storms to become severe today. High storm bases and strong updrafts will allow damaging winds to be be the primary hazard with these storms. Though, if a couple of cells can utilize our shear environment, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out. Therefore, large hail will be an initial threat with storms that have strong rotating updrafts. Some of the latest 12Z CAMs are showing increased confidence in showers and thunderstorms persisting out of New Mexico tonight through tomorrow morning. While instability and moisture should be low to prevent storms from becoming severe, enough CAPE should be present to allow a few storms to continue overnight and produce lightning accompanied by moderate rainfall. Chances for flash flooding have sharply fallen off compared to previous forecasts. Precipitable water values are coming in lower with this morning's 12Z models, and the theta-e moisture axis is better centered over western Oklahoma and Kansas compared to the Panhandles.

Sunday, after morning showers clear out, our environment should recover some as the airmass over our region won't be highly stable after the passage of the cold front. That said, without a strong source of lift, thunderstorm chances may end up being very low during the afternoon and evening. Some models like the 12Z HRRR suggest the front will stall between Canyon and Plainview. This would promote daytime convection along and south of the I-40 corridor. However, other CAMs continue to push the cold front much further south. This would inhibit storms and likely drop our PoPs to zero during the afternoon and evening. Though, overnight into Monday morning looks to be a different story. Convection should generate off of a surface low in southeast Colorado and our next cold front will push these storms into the Panhandle region Sunday night into Monday morning. The environment ahead of this complex will be favorable for upscale growth and potentially allow for some storms to become severe. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary hazards.

High temperatures Sunday afternoon will finally experience a more substantial decrease compared to previous days. Most of the area should stay in the 80s with a few locations in the south and east reaching the 90s. If the cold front advances further south than expected, these temperatures could be cooler than the current forecast.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Long range models continue to suppress the upper level ridge towards the southeast CONUS in the extended period. Favorable steering flow on the western flank of the high will continue to promote rain chances through the week. High-end moisture profiles, (where 0-3 km equivalent potential temperatures are above 325 Kelvin), should let storms through the week become efficient rain producers. The potential for excessive rainfall will need to be monitored, and national guidance already favors the western Panhandles due to the higher confidence of multiple rounds of storms affecting them through the week.

Temperatures this week are on the decline, with highs potentially not escaping the 70s on some days. This is due to our aforementioned high-end moisture profiles creating day time cloud cover alongside rain-cooled air from thunderstorms. Surface winds may be more southeasterly through the week as well. This aids in advecting more surface moisture into the CWA opposed to warm, dry air advection from the southwest.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites for the next 24 hours. There are some concerns about overnight convection at all sites, as new model data shows showers persisting out of New Mexico. However, chances for thunderstorms remain low so mentions have been omitted from this TAF issuance. Otherwise, light to breezy winds are expected at all sites. The initial direction is southwesterly, but winds will flip out from the north after our cold front moves through tonight and tomorrow morning.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.