Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing temperatures and mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday.

- Very hot conditions expected to return Friday through the weekend, with high temperatures and heat index values potentially above 100 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Partly sunny skies across western and central ND early this evening with a mix of mainly mid and high level clouds with some smoke aloft. Some light returns noted with the mid clouds but expect little if any precipitation is reaching the ground. Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and did not add a mention of pops as returns much weaker than earlier this afternoon when we did get some ground truth with some light rain reaching the ground.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Overall quiet weather is expected the next few days. There are some returns in southwestern North Dakota that have produced occasional light rain. However, showers have been dissipating over the past hour or so and should continue to do so. Smoke is present across much of the forecast area, though visibility reductions are limited and mainly in the north. Neither the HRRR nor Rap smoke models suggest high concentrations at the surface, so believe visibility should remain greater than 6 miles most areas, most of the time.

Beyond today, a warming trend is on tap through the remainder of the week as a west CONUS ridge amplifies and gradually slides eastward. High temperatures could exceed 100 degrees across parts of the state Friday through Sunday, with the warmest overall day favored to be Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are also expected through Thursday, after which periodic shortwaves could lead to occasional showers and thunderstorms Friday through this weekend. Severe weather is not out of the question with CSU machine learning putting low severe probs into the forecast Friday through this weekend.

Of note, models do not favor consistent direct Gulf moisture through this weekend. Therefore, despite similarly hot ambient temperatures, dewpoints will often remain lower than during the past period of hot weather. As such, heat indices will likely be less than the ambient temperature as well. Still, at least advisory level conditions likely if trends continue as-is. While the lack of consistent Gulf moisture doesn't preclude the aforementioned severe weather potential, it will likely limit the duration (number of days) and areal coverage overall. Will continue to monitor the latest trends over the next couple days to see how this all evolves.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. A light northerly surface flow will turn southerly on Wednesday and remain light (around 10 knots or less). With a light surface flow and some smoke around, some patchy low lying fog can not be ruled out early Wednesday morning but certainly not enough confidence to add to TAFs. Short range guidance is not hinting at fog attim and bufkit soundings do not look favorable.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.