Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will continue across central North Dakota early this morning.

- Breezy conditions Wednesday mainly across southeast North Dakota, including the James River Valley. - High temperatures near to above normal with mostly dry conditions are favored through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low status and fog will continue across portions of central North Dakota this morning expanding southward. Fog is forecast to clear out later this morning, shortly after sunrise. Dense fog has been observed and will cause visibility reductions down to a quarter of a mile across portions of central North Dakota.

The upper low continues to progress across Minnesota and will slowly progress into the Great Lakes region later this week. Short range models have low stratus moving out of the forecast area this afternoon. Surface high pressure over western North Dakota will continue to push low clouds eastward. A cooler airmass has settled into the region bringing forth near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s while low temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s. The surface low over southern Minnesota and surface high over western North Dakota will lead to breezy conditions in the James River Valley to the Red River Valley. Winds will die down as surface high pressure moves east later this evening.

Upper level ridging will build back over the Northern Plains by the middle to end of this week as troughing moves east. This will bring forth dry and warm conditions through the remainder of the week. High temperatures this week are forecast to sit in the 50s across the state with light winds. Ridging will move eastward this weekend as the ENS has an upper level low digging across the Canadian Prairies. The aforementioned upper level low will bring forth breezy to windy conditions across the western half of the state. However, the GEFs has backed off of this scenario and drops the upper low over South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday, which has decreased wind speeds on the NBM. No precipitation is forecast from this upper low.

Ridging will likely build back over western CONUS to start the week, however northwesterly flow will bring multiple system through Canada likely to far north for precipitation. Ridging will likely follow by the middle of next week leading to dry and warm conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies are expected across western North Dakota through the 06Z TAF period, with light winds tonight becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph Wednesday.

MVFR to IFR ceilings in low stratus over central and into eastern ND. Stratus has moved back west towards Minot this evening and fog has developed around KMOT. The back edge of the stratus shield is also right over Bismarck. KJMS will likely see MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight and Wednesday morning, with VFR conditions developing Wednesday afternoon. KBIS may or may not clear out tonight, and if it does clear, fog would be a possibility. Fog may remain around KMOT through the night, although guidance suggests it should move out towards morning. Obviously KBIS and KMOT are the two troublesome TAF sites tonight, and will probably lean towards the pessimistic side through mid morning Wednesday. Once stratus/fog clear Wednesday morning, VFR conditions should prevail at KMOT and KBIS through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NDZ005-012- 013-022-023-025.