Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

- Heat Risk: Heat indices will top out in the 103-106 degree range this Saturday afternoon. Take extra precautions with any extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon and evening with damaging winds up to 60 mph as the main impact.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

Our upper ridge of late over Texas and into Mexico is deteriorating as a closed low over Florida pushes westward toward the Northern Gulf Coast. This will transition our weather pattern and finally yield a return to scattered storm chances. Some storms may be strong to severe this afternoon into early evening with very hot temperatures to fuel the activity. The main threat will be gusty downburst winds. For Sunday into Monday, guidance brings the upper low further westward over the Northern Gulf Coast. This will allow for continued moisture to filter into the state. Low to medium chances for isolated to scattered convection will continue. On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the low. Diurnal pop chances continue through mid week ahead of an approaching surface front/boundary. Beneficial rainfall is expected but does not look to be enough to make a large dent in the drought just yet. Guidance is looking more favorable for the weak front to make it through the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring much welcome more "normal" readings for this time of year into Central Alabama for the latter half of the week.

We continue to have a heat advisory in effect for much of Central Alabama for this afternoon and early evening through 8pm. Concern is for all of the outdoor activities and that it is much warmer than normal for this time of year (outlier event). While any convection will help to lower temperatures to bring some relief, outside of any storms will be toasty. Plan breaks accordingly. Today is expected to be the warmest day over the next 7 days. No additional heat advisories are anticipated to be necessary over the next week after today.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Isolated showers and storms remain present across the area early this evening so we have opted to continue with the PROB30 groups for another couple of hours. Low level moisture left in the wake of these storms will likely lead to patchy fog developing around sunrise Sunday morning. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely again Sunday afternoon. Outside of any convection, winds will be light throughout this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 35%. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend and continue into the middle of next week. Winds will remain light through the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.