Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS64 KBMX 040457 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1057 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1052 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026
- Mid-Week Focus: Keep an eye on tonight into Wednesday as rain chances ramp up, along with a low medium thunderstorm chance. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding.
- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, allowing for lows in the 40s and potentially mid to upper 30s for the weekend into the first half of next week. A frost advisory may be needed for portions of the area as early as Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1052 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026
This evening, a surface low will move out of Iowa and Wisconsin toward Upper Michigan by Thursday. As it does so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States including Central Alabama. Shower activity will become widespread ahead of this front along with a few thunderstorms with enough forcing from the front. Latest guidance continues to weaken thunderstorms as they get closer tonight, and this agrees with the latest radar trends. The flow could be a little slow at times which could yield a low to medium chance for heavy rain/isolated localized flooding potential for late tonight into Wednesday morning instead of severe. The best chances would be in the NRN half of Central Alabama.
By Thursday, the system will continue to progress through the SE portions of the CWA with all precipitation expected to exit Central Alabama by late Thursday evening. Behind the front on Friday, a much colder Canadian ridge will build to lower the temperatures back into the 40s (and maybe some mid to upper 30s) for lows across Central Alabama for this weekend into the first part of next week. Guidance is trending colder behind this front with each successive run. There is a low to medium chance that we could see our first frost as early as Saturday night now. This would be the first of multiple days where portions of the area may see frost.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGs will remain draped across the region over the next 24-hours, as the line of showers and cold front continue to push into the area. All terminals will continue to carry SHRA through 05/00z, before the line starts to clear to the east. Once the rain clears, CIGs will more or less stabilize in MVFR category, and remain here for the rest of this TAF period.
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FIRE WEATHER
MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the next couple of days. Rain will become more widespread overnight. Winds will become southeast to southwest on Wednesday ahead of a front and shift further as it moves through the area. Drier and cooler conditions return Friday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Gadsden | 63 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 80% | 90% | 30% | 10% |
| Anniston | 65 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 70% | 90% | 50% | 10% |
| Birmingham | 65 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 80% | 90% | 20% | 10% |
| Tuscaloosa | 65 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 80% | 80% | 10% | 0% |
| Calera | 66 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 80% | 80% | 30% | 10% |
| Auburn | 66 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 60% | 80% | 40% | 30% |
| Montgomery | 66 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 60% | 70% | 50% | 20% |
| Troy | 64 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 60% | 80% | 40% | 20% |
BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../44/