Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Second cool front approaches later this week into next weekend bringing additional chances (30-70%) for rain Thursday evening through next Sunday.

- Temperatures trend from seasonable to unseasonably cool Friday through next Monday (i.e. high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A pair of cool fronts will be the primary drivers of our weather pattern through next weekend. The first of two cool fronts currently working is way southeastward into the Rio Grande Valley. A few showers have developed over Coastal/Island Kenedy County and over the Gulf Waters. A few showers are possible late tonight across Cameron County as this front continues to translate southward.

Behind the cool front, cooler and drier air will advect into the region. On Wednesday, temperature anomalies will return to near seasonable levels with highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain-free weather conditions return on Wednesday behind the aforementioned cool front. Temperatures briefly spike up Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday night and persist through Sunday. This is in response to another cool front, that may wash out before making it into Deep South Texas, approaches the region. Ahead of the cool front, forecast models continue to indicate a weak shortwave trough developing nearby. If realized, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the region Thursday night through Sunday. Currently, we have low-medium (30-70%) PoPs/chances for showers and thunderstorms developing with the best chances (highest probabilities) generally being located closer the Lower Texas Coast, though there will be an areawide threat.

Seasonable to unseasonably cool temperatures will develop Thursday night through mid next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Through 06z Thursday....By and large, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR clouds around at times. A few showers are possible tonight in response to a cool front that's currently pushing through the area. Have VCSH for the terminals to acknowledge the potential for showers this tonight.

Winds will shift out of the north this evening as the aforementioned cool front pushes through the region. Winds will continue out of the north-northeast with speeds between 5-10 knots through the remainder of the 06z TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions tonight into Wednesday in response to the first cool front. Low to moderate winds and seas return Wednesday night through Friday night. SCEC conditions return Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing Saturday night into Sunday in response to the second cool front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BRO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.