Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record warmth today with dry weather continuing through late afternoon.

2) Showers return tonight, with unsettled weather and cooler temperatures lasting through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record warmth today with dry weather continuing through late afternoon.

A mid-level ridge will continue to build east across the Atlantic seaboard through mid-week, supporting surface high pressure to persist off the eastern Atlantic. Overall this will support a continuation of dry weather through late this afternoon with periods of mid/high clouds drifting across the region.

A belt of 25-30 knot southerly flow in the boundary layer will bring some increase in winds today, most notably along the lee slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge this morning where downslope winds may gust to 30 mph at times.

As the upper ridge builds further north Wednesday, 850mb temperatures will continue to rise, peaking between +14C to +15C. The anomalous warmth aloft will combine with some filtered sunshine, mechanical mixing from the southerly breeze, and downslope compressional warming to boost temperatures into the mid to upper 70s across lower elevations. See Climate section for more information regarding record temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers return tonight, with unsettled weather and cooler temperatures lasting through next weekend.

Deep troughing and associated closed low will move into the Great Lakes for the later half of the work week. A deep southerly flow originating from the Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will support a plume of moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday morning. This deep moisture combined with forcing from the surface to 500mb due to a passing cold front will support widespread showers across the region, and provide some modest relief to the recent dry spell. Rainfall amounts will not be overly impressive however given the fast motion of the system and narrow axis of moisture. Most areas will see 0.25" or less of rain tonight.

In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty southwest winds northeast of Lake Erie with gusts of 25 to 35 mph impacting much of the Niagara Frontier on Thursday.

The trough will move overhead Friday and persist into the weekend, possibly evolving into a slow moving mid level low by late Friday through Saturday over the eastern Great Lakes. The trough and associated forcing and moisture will support a chance of showers Friday into the weekend. Ongoing cold advection will also bring a notable downward trend in temperatures, with highs this weekend back to near average after the exceptional warmth this week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon region wide, despite a few areas of mid to high level clouds advecting across the area early this morning beneath the warm sector. An approaching cold front this afternoon and evening will support clouds to thicken and lower around 00Z.

With the passing cold front tonight, clouds will continue to lower to MVFR and higher terrain IFR, along will supporting a narrow ribbon of showers. The potential for showers will then persist overnight into Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers.

Saturday through Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely at times.

MARINE

Low pressure will deepen as it moves to Wisconsin today, before crossing the upper Great Lakes tonight and reaching Quebec Thursday. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes tonight through early Thursday morning. Southerly winds will run in the 10-15 knot range today with a light to moderate chop in offshore waters on both lakes.

South winds will increase further tonight, then become southwest Thursday behind the cold front. This may bring a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions, with the best chance on Lake Erie. Winds will diminish Thursday night through Friday as the low over Quebec elongates and weakens.

FIRE WEATHER

A long stretch of very dry weather continues across the region, with minimal rainfall over the past three weeks, leaving fine fuels and leaf litter very dry across the region.

Dry weather will continue today along with near record warmth. A southerly breeze will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range with some higher gusts. Afternoon minimum relative humidity may drop into the 40 to 45 percent range.

A cold front will then cross the region tonight, bringing a period of beneficial rain to the region. Rainfall amounts will be light, with 0.25" or less in most areas. Another system will cross the eastern Great Lakes late Friday through the weekend with additional rain chances, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.

CLIMATE

Unusually warm weather across western and north-central New York is expected today. Forecast temperatures are expected to be around 20 degrees above normal for part of the first week of November. Here is a list of record high temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, and normals for today.

Record High Temperatures(F)

Buffalo Rochester Watertown

Wednesday, November 4 74(2022) 78(2015) 73(2015) Normal 52 54 51

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures(F)

Buffalo Rochester Watertown

Wednesday, November 4 57(1935) 58(1987) 56(1987) Normal 38 38 33

BUF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...None.