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000 FXUS65 KBYZ 040803 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 103 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may bring reductions to visibility early this morning.

- Mainly dry this week with a slight chance of precipitation over south-central Montana late Thursday into early Friday.

- Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend.

- Periods of windy conditions develop over the mountains and foothills of south-central Montana Friday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Today through Tuesday...

Fog is possible this morning, mainly over the creek and river valleys of eastern Montana and north-central Wyoming (20 percent chance). Any fog that does develop will dissipate through the morning hours, giving way to a seasonable day with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s (F) under mostly sunny skies. Tonight, temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s (F) with the potential for fog over the plains of eastern Montana and north- central Wyoming once again (20 percent chance).

Thursday will be a slightly warmer day with high temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees (F). While mostly dry conditions will prevail, a shortwave trough is expected to pass through the region late Thursday into early Friday, bringing a slight chance of precipitation to south-central Montana (15 to 30 percent chance). With this, precipitation type is expected to be rain over the lower elevations and snow in the mountains. Ahead of this shortwave trough, breezy winds may also develop around Livingston to Nye Thursday morning, with gusts in the 20s and 30s (mph) forecast.

A ridge of high pressure looks to return Friday into Saturday ahead of another potential weather system passing to the north late Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this system, winds are expected to increase Friday into Sunday over the mountains and foothills of south-central Montana, strongest around Livingston to Nye through Big Timber and Harlowton. While the conditions look most favorable for Big Timber to Harlowton Friday into Saturday, the most favorable conditions around Livingston to Nye are likely to occur late Saturday into Sunday. With this, periods of wind gusts in the 20s to 40s (mph) look to be common, with occasional gusts to 50 mph around Livingston to Nye Sunday morning. As far as the chance of seeing a 60+ mph gust goes, the chance is 25 percent around Livingston to Nye Sunday morning.

Ensembles suggest warm and mainly dry conditions will take hold next week under a ridge of high pressure aloft. LA

.AVIATION...

Patchy fog is forecast early this morning over portions of eastern Montana and north-central Wyoming. With this, impacts to KBIL, KSHR, KLVM, and KMLS cannot be ruled out, though confidence is low at KBIL, KSHR, and KLVM, and moderate at KMLS. Any patchy fog that does develop will dissipate after 15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. LA

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052 032/057 034/055 039/060 039/065 040/058 038/061 0/U 00/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B LVM 054 027/055 028/054 031/059 034/063 034/059 034/060 0/B 00/B 30/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B HDN 052 027/055 032/056 033/061 032/066 035/058 033/062 0/U 00/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B MLS 050 030/052 032/053 035/057 033/062 038/057 034/059 0/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 054 028/058 034/055 035/060 034/067 038/060 036/062 0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B BHK 052 025/055 029/053 032/056 031/064 037/058 033/060 0/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B SHR 055 024/058 029/054 027/061 029/068 033/059 032/064 0/U 00/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B

BYZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.

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