Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Added a few hours of patchy fog this morning based on current observations, particularly in areas where rain has ceased but elevated low level moisture combined with light winds has allowed for radiational fog to develop, such as Downeast

- Appended Climate section to address abnormally warm temperatures through the middle of this week.

- Increasing confidence for unusually warm temperatures this afternoon and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain continues through this morning morning. Some drought relief is possible across Northern Maine. Temperatures this afternoon and Thursday could approach daily record high temperatures.

2) Additional rainfall expected late Thursday into the weekend, though exact timing and amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this morning morning. Some drought relief is possible across Northern Maine. Temperatures this afternoon and Thursday could approach daily record high temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... With a stationary/slow moving warm front currently positioned near the Maine Coast, unsettled weather continues over the forecast area into this morning. Aloft, a 700 mb vort max persists over the Crown of Maine, persisting stratiform rain over the area. Through the morning, northern Maine may see an additional half an inch of rainfall or so. For the Downeast region, as the warm front gradually lifts northwards, the dry warm sector will replace this synoptic feature, and precipitation will clear the area.

As the warm sector takes over the entirety of northern and eastern Maine this afternoon into the day on Thursday, southwest warm air advection will allow for temperatures to warm, lifting well above average and potentially even making a run for daily record high temperatures. Today highs may lift into the mid to upper 60s Downeast, while the north remains more modest due to the lingering rain and only reaches into the upper 50s to around 60. For Thursday, highs throughout the CWA could make a run for the mid to upper 60s, and 70 will definitely be within reach, particularly in the Bangor area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rainfall expected late Thursday into the weekend, though exact timing and amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large occlusion should move NE across Quebec and into the Maritimes Thursday through Friday. As the system progresses, a vertically stacked closed low should develop over the Great Lakes. The large cold front from the occluded low will pull ample moisture from the tropical southeast. On Friday morning, the cold front should be across the Gulf Of Maine, slowly moving northward. Rain is expected to begin Downeast Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday. The second low over the Great Lakes merges with the cold front, creating an intensifying low over the Mid-Atlantic states. Expect an increase in rain showers Downeast from this. The new low is expected to move across the state this weekend, bringing rain to the entire region. However, the timing of the system is still uncertain. Thus total rainfall amounts are still unknown.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today... - For BGR and Downeast terminals, IFR conditions to quickly improve to VFR as rain moves out shortly after 12z. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

- For northern terminals, generally continued IFR cigs as light rain continues. Winds light and variable.

Tonight... - For BGR and Downeast terminals, VFR with winds light and variable through the night.

- For northern terminals, rain to exit by around 00z, though IFR cigs likely to linger through the night. Winds light and variable through the night.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR cigs at all terminals, though VFR breaks most likely at BGR and Downeast terminals. S wind 5 to 10 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts, with strongest winds closer to the coast.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, in rain. SSW winds 5-10 kts. LLWS possible

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain mainly in south terminals. SSW winds 5-10 kts becoming light and variable late.

Friday night-Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. NE winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday...MVFR in rain. NNW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Today through tonight, winds are expected to continue to remain below 20 kts and seas at or below 3 ft across all marine zones. On Thursday, winds will begin to increase out of the SW, and gusts could approach 25 to 30 kts on the outer waters, while approaching marginal small craft advisory criteria on the coastal waters with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Seas at this time could climb to around 4 ft.

Winds are expected to remain at SCA levels early Thursday night, then decreasing after midnight to below SCA. In general, expect southerly winds through Saturday, then becoming variable Saturday night. Then W winds on Sunday. Seas 2-4 ft.

CLIMATE

Persistent warm air advection into the forecast area over the next two days will lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and temperatures could approach daily record highs.

Wednesday, November 4 CAR: Record 67 set in 2022... Forecast 58 HUL: Record 69 set in 2022... Forecast 61 MLT: Record 71 set in 2022... Forecast 66 BGR: Record 72 set in 1990... Forecast 70

Thursday, November 5 CAR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 63 HUL: Record 70 set in 2022... Forecast 66 MLT: Record 72 set in 2022... Forecast 65 BGR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 70

CAR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.