Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 513 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Scattered, weak showers Thursday

- Cold front passage Friday with re-enforcing surge/front Sunday

- Light rain chances across South Texas this weekend with cooler temps through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

As the cold front continues to push offshore, the area will remain under weak, northerly flow through the afternoon. By tonight, the front starts lifting back as a warm front, leading to the return of onshore flow. Meanwhile, some eastern Pacific vorticity lobes advect into South Texas on Thursday. The REFS hints at this in the composite reflectivity guidance, while the latest NBM had silent PoPs (<15%). For this reason, I bumped up PoPs to 15-20% Thursday, but it shouldn't be a washout as forecast accumulations are only expected to be a few hundredths. By Thursday night, this PVA and a surface frontal passage continue to support showers, but it will primarily location along the coast. Saturday, a trough moving in from the Rockies will reinforce the northerly winds, bringing along a broader, synoptic ascent vertical motion resulting in widespread 20-40% PoPs, but the secondary surge will also lower PWATs to under 1.0" leading to low rainfall amounts Saturday night through Sunday (<0.5 inches).

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s and becoming more widespread 80s on Thursday. Changes to this trend begin Saturday with highs struggling to climb above the 60s region-wide Sunday. Low temperatures will drop back into the 50s across the northern Brush Country/Victoria Crossroads through Thursday morning, climbing back into the 60s before the secondary cold front, and then remaining in the 50s through midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Mainly clear skies will be accompanied by light and variable winds (northerly to easterly) generally below 11 KT.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A cold front passage has resulted in fresh to strong (BF 5 to 6) offshore winds that will continue through the overnight hours before gradually weakening through the day and become more onshore winds early Thursday morning. Friday morning, a secondary frontal passage will result in offshore winds again with 2-4 ft seas (increasing to Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday). Rain chances will come back Thursday and ending Friday night. This weekend, widespread low to moderate rain chances return.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The fire risk will be low through the forecast period due to minimum relative humidity values above 30% in addition to rain chances along the southern coastal plains Thursday night and Friday, and then again Saturday night and Sunday, allowing for a wetting chance of rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.