Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Two possible rounds of storms tonight, one across the eastern zones, the next through the overnight period

- Very pleasant high temperatures with a nice break from the heat Sunday

- Bouts of storm chances, with the highest pops across the western zones for the next business week with warm but less hot conditions

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Several of the CAMs have come into better agreement with the convective evolution this evening and through the overnight period. The first round, during the mid evening hours, looks to form off a sfc front across the eastern zones. There is a chance that this activity may clip or just remain SE of Hays, Kansas. The second round of storms will form off the higher terrain of Colorado and drift across the Kansas prairie late tonight and into the overnight hours. This second round may impact the western and central zones. As far as severe weather is concerned, there is marginal bulk shear (30 kt) for weaker/lower end supercell structures... and with an eventual line out as the storms develop upscale. This is for the first round. The initial threats of 1-2" hail then winds in the 60 to 70 mph looks likely for the first around across the eastern zones. For the second around, there could be some smaller hail, but by that time in the late evening, the main threat should be more of convective outflows in the 50-65 mph range. Coverage will be very hit-or-miss in both rounds with high variable precipitation amounts, since we are dealing with two rounds of thunderstorms.

Winds will eventually shift out of the N to NE and blow in the 5-20 mph range tomorrow. There will be cold air advection during the day in the wake of the front with 850 hPa temperatures decreasing down to around 10C by Sunday afternoon. This will support very pleasant high temperatures tomorrow with values peaking in the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 70 corridor to lower 80s across the Oklahoma border. Tomorrow would be a good day to do any outdoor activities/chores given the nice break from the heat. Humidity will not be that bad either with dewpoints remaining in the 50s for much of the day. Monday morning might be a good morning to turn off the AC, as lows during this period will be in the upper 50s to around 60F. There is also a low chance of showers in the morning, mainly confined to the western zones.

The long range models and their ensemble counterparts are not showing any major mid-level anticyclone for the first half of next week. This would support the notion of more near normal highs and lows Monday through Wednesday. Highs look to peak in the 70s and lows look to bottom out in the 50s. There also could be showers and storms developing across the higher terrain of Colorado and then drifting across western Kansas each day. The highest pops will be kept to the western zones, which is typical for this type of weather pattern. More weak mid-level ridging may be possible for the second half of the week with both highs and lows increasing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 444 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the evening. Eventually, IFR to even LIFR cigs are expected through the early morning hours in the form of low stratus. Flight conditions should improve slowly around 18Z or so tomorrow, as these low clouds start to erode. Otherwise, expect a wind shift later tonight with winds become N to NE 10-15 kt in the wake of a front. For storms, it seems unlikely of an immediate impact of storms to the terminals. Have delayed overnight storm timing and have a PROB30/CB/TS groups for KGCK and KHYS, where confidence is higher than KDDC and KLBL. Timing on the storms look to be in the 06Z and 12Z period, based on the latest CAMs. Gusty and variable winds cannot be ruled out completely with any storm activity.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.