Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool, gray, blustery weather today into tonight with spotty light showers.

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will set in later this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 135 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A large, stacked cyclone is spinning over the region early this morning, centered near the Iowa/Minnesota border. During the day today it will meander slightly northeastward, where it will eventually be caught up by a trough moving into Hudson Bay, scooping the low into the Great Lakes tonight but with a trailing trough lingering over Iowa. At the surface, a large cloud shield is wrapped around the low and blanketing Iowa and neighboring states. Wraparound rain has affected northern and western portions of our service area overnight, where it will persist on and off today into tonight but remain light and of no real impact. The result of this scenario will be a much cooler, gray, blustery day as gusty northwest winds and overcast skies give us a shot of real fall weather. Any spotty rain will be of very little accumulation and temperatures will struggle to climb more than a few degrees today, with forecast highs near present levels in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A few showers may linger in the north as lingering moisture feeds into the area. Once the low clears Iowa, flow aloft will begin to come from the north and west. The abundant moisture transport into the area that has helped drive the showers will be choked off, and cooler, drier air will set in. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), which has been consistently highlighting the area as having above normal highs and lows is starting to back off on this signal. By the weekend, overnight lows look to dip into the 30s with the potential for northern Iowa to see lows in the upper 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low clouds will continue to blanket the area through the 12Z TAF period. At the northern terminals ceilings will remain IFR, but at OTM and likely DSM will rise to MVFR for at least a period this afternoon to evening. Meanwhile, spotty light showers and drizzle will move through today and tonight, with the most frequent/highest probabilities of visibility reduction in the north. Attempted to include -RA in these areas only during the more likely periods, but amendments may be needed today.

DMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.