Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cyclonic flow under an upper trof will keep our area cool and mainly cloudy through Thursday, with periods of scattered light showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 138 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The mid to late evening hours, a mid level dry slot worked through the entire area, ending the rain showers from west to east. The low pressure at the surface remained just west of our CWA, and through midnight, has kept CAA and dry air at bay as of yet. However, as this low moves to western WI by morning, west winds will sweep in cooler air and drier surface air into the region (dew points in the 40s and 50s). That dry air is actually saturated due to the CAA, and this will arrive with widespread stratus and periods of light drizzle or even light showers today. This low level saturation will keep temperatures from rising much above the 6 AM temperatures today, as the highs for today are undoubtedly the Midnight temperatures a few hours ago.

The upper trof will remain in place and gradually elongate through Thursday, but the position of it suggests little change in our sensible weather, more clouds, damp/drizzly skies, and cool temperatures in the 50s. Any rain amounts will be light, under 0.15 for the next 48 hours.

The upper low/trof will break down on Friday, but this won't mean milder temperatures at first. In fact, Friday could be quite cool with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, continued stratocumulus at times, and clearing Friday night dropping lows to the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 138 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The cool Canadian high pressure will continue to keep the chilly air around through the weekend, with more sunshine helping moderate the feel of the days.

This surface high is forecast to move southeast of the region early next week, with increased southwest winds and milder temperatures in the 60s forecast. This entire period of from Friday through the middle of next week is expected to be dry.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A large storm system will slowly move away from Iowa tonight and Wednesday. Rain has moved out of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois at the start of the period, with a temporary MVFR/VFR dry slot in place over the region. This will end quickly through 08z at cool moisture wraps around the low, arriving confidently with west winds overnight, and lasting all day Wednesday as wrap around stratus lingers through the day, with gusty west winds. A few showers are possible, especially north of I-80 in the mid to late morning hours, with no visibility restrictions expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.