Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy drizzle will gradually clear out through the morning hours.

- Cool and cloudy for today with breezy westerly winds.

- Near normal temperatures with generally condition expected through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Current 500 mb analysis shows the center of the mid/upper level low over NW Iowa and SW Minnesota. The surface cyclone is currently centered over SE Minnesota and the associated cold front has now moved through most of Missouri, taking the showers with it. However, air remains saturated near the surface supporting patchy drizzle through the early morning, but conditions will start to dry out as WNW flow continues to bring cooler, drier air to the region. Clouds will stick around for most of the day but will gradually clear out from southwest to northeast tonight as the surface low continues to move NE, except for areas north of US 36. Highs today will feel much more like fall with values in the mid to upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.

Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s. The 500 mb low over the upper Midwest will progress slightly to the NE as another 500 mb low moves into the southern plains by Thursday night, resulting in a positively tilted trough across the central US. However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%). The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees. Another warming trend is likely early next week with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s while dry conditions should persist.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through 18Z with patchy drizzle gradually shifting east through the morning hours. After 18Z, MVFR stratus should lift to VFR and thin becoming scattered.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.