Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer temperatures with a couple slight chances for light rain Wednesday and into the weekend. * Stronger storm systems with heavy rain possible starting around or after November 10th.

SYNOPSIS

Conditions will trend warmer and drier through the week and into the weekend. A couple fronts will clip the region Wednesday and Sunday, bringing chances for light rain. The weather pattern may trend more active mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Light to moderate rain showers quickly pull away Tuesday evening with the fading low pressure area. Remnant moisture, cloudcover, and patchy fog should largely prevent areas of frost through Wednesday morning where the growing season continues outside of Trinity County.

A series of strong NE Pacific cyclones will form and impact regions north of CA in the Pacific Northwest and BC. These storm systems will send a couple weak, clipping fronts Wednesday and Saturday/Sunday. Light rainfall will be possible, but totals look to be low. There is a higher chance of rain for the weekend system, with 40-50% chance for over 0.3 inch of rain for N Humboldt to Del Norte. This period will have to be watched for some enhanced southerly winds however, looking at 925mb winds. There is currently around 40% chance for gusts over 30 mph for the Del Norte ridges and coast Sat- Sun.

The longer term forecast still holds a signal for a more active pattern, with ensembles showing the potential for more impactful storms capable of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Non linear error growth through the farther extended timeframe leads to over- amplification of the large Pacific storm systems in the global models. This is evident in the growing variability in solutions, with half the clusters depicting 1-2 inches of rainfall and the other 50% dry through the 11th through 12th of November timeframe. Chances for over an inch in 24 hours are 45 to 55% over that period. Strong southerly winds would also be possible. JJW

AVIATION

Post frontal dynamics are driving the conditions at the coastal terminals. Vicinity showers are becoming less frequent at KCEC and KACV. Light northerlies have filled in behind the front that passed through earlier today. Stable vertical profiles are expected with clearing visibility improvements after the rain. VFR through the TAF period at KCEC and KACV. Fog could be an issue Wednesday morning as light winds and not much cloud cover expected, according to GFS-MOS. KUKI has lingering conditions with regards to occasional rain and lower visibility. Tempo groups are in place to cover the random periods of showers, likely to become diminished by 03z. /EYS

MARINE

After an active morning with the passing front and localize gusts out of the south-southeast at 23-25knots south of Cape Mendocino. Winds were a bit lighter north of the cape but rain was widespread along with hazardous seas. A Small Craft Advisory remains hoisted through this evening in the northern and southern outer waters, with the inner waters SC.Y conditions have eased. Longer period swells are in decay with a more organized sea state forecasted. Northerlies ramp up late Thursday evening as high pressure fills in. /EYS

BEACH HAZARDS

A large, long period WNW swell is only very slowly subsiding in size and energy. Caution is still highly warranted around beaches with a risk for sneaker waves. An eastward propagating, strong Aleutian low will deliver a second long period WNW swell. The swell will arrive late Thursday with periods up to 20 seconds. The swell will peak at around 12 ft at 17 seconds Friday, bringing another risk for sneaker waves.

Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits. Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean!

COASTAL FLOODING

The positive tidal anomaly has increased again, continuing bring tides higher than predicted. The increased southerly winds brought tides 1.8 ft higher than forecast Tuesday at the North Spit gauge. Tides are officially forecast to reach 7.4 to 7.5 ft at North Spit on the 7th through 10th of November. The current range of tidal anomalies would bring tides up to and over the advisory level of 8.8 ft, and minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay. There will likely be periods of stronger southerly winds through those days, bringing higher confidence to at least minor coastal flooding, and perhaps some moderate.

EKA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ450- 455.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ470- 475.