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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS64 KEPZ 191832 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Drier weather this weekend and into Monday, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes of the forecast area.

- A rapid return of moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the rest of next week. Heavy rain will pose a risk of flash flooding area wide.

- Typical mid-September temperatures over the weekend, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Cooler temperatures expected next week with forecasted rain and lingering cloud coverage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

WV imagery showing short-wave now extending north-south through central New Mexico with layered moisture to the east over the eastern half of the CWA. PWs are as high as 1.2 inches in this layered moisture. Further west, the main upper trough extends from the Great Basin low down across central Arizona. So the far east still has a risk of thunderstorms today/tonight. Sacramento Mtns could see a stray storm this afternoon, with Hudspeth seeing some isolated this evening. HRRR showing good outflow hitting west Texas early this evening to aid in that development.

Sunday and Monday...look to remain dry as that main upper trough and moisture plume move well east of our area. Highest PWs remain in the east, but only around .70 inches. Probably non-zero chances for a storm over Otero/Hudspeth Counties but will not mention this in the grids.

Tuesday through Friday...abundant sub-tropical moisture rapidly streams up from the south with the help of a sub-tropical jet (80+ kts by Thursday). PWs approaching 1.50 inches Tuesday night (record levels) and only back off slightly Wednesday through Friday. Thus expect widespread showers/thunderstorms all these days. Small scale features will determine exactly when the heaviest rain and flood potential occur. GFS shows tropical wave/vort center moving out of Mexico to our area Tuesday night, though the ECMWF not as visible with this. ECMWF has been consistent in showing TS remnants (Odalys?) moving up Thursday night. Both these features could really enhance an already primed situation. Flood Watches will likely be issued eventually for this period.

Saturday and Sunday...GFS/ECMWF patterns diverge noticeably, but their bottom lines are about the same; less moisture but still expect isolated/scattered thunderstorms each day, though Sunday transitioning downward with activity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Generally VFR with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN070CB SHRA/-TSRA over the mountains. A few thunderstorms possible over the lowlands east of the RG Valley after 21Z. Additionally, developing after 01Z, mainly over Hudspeth, isolated thunderstorms until around 07Z. Gusty outflow winds (south 15-20 knots) possible this evening across Luna, Dona Ana, and El Paso Counties.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Very little fire concerns over the next week. Brief drying period Sunday and Monday with lower humidities, but rapid moisture increase Tuesday into next weekend will raise humidities sharply, bring periods of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding to much of the forecast area.

Min RH: Lowlands 18-23% Sunday/Monday increasing to 35-50% Tuesday through Friday. Mountains20-30% Sunday/Monday increasing to 60-80% Tuesday through Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Tuesday, becoming poor-fair Wednesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of Precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
El Paso 66 ℉ 93 ℉ 67 ℉ 93 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Sierra Blanca 63 ℉ 90 ℉ 63 ℉ 90 ℉ 30% 0% 0% 10%
Las Cruces 61 ℉ 90 ℉ 61 ℉ 90 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Alamogordo 64 ℉ 90 ℉ 64 ℉ 90 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloudcroft 50 ℉ 70 ℉ 48 ℉ 70 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 10%
Truth or Consequences 60 ℉ 86 ℉ 61 ℉ 85 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Silver City 59 ℉ 82 ℉ 59 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deming 61 ℉ 92 ℉ 61 ℉ 91 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lordsburg 63 ℉ 88 ℉ 64 ℉ 89 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
West El Paso Metro 67 ℉ 93 ℉ 66 ℉ 93 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Dell City 64 ℉ 94 ℉ 63 ℉ 93 ℉ 20% 10% 10% 0%
Fort Hancock 69 ℉ 97 ℉ 69 ℉ 97 ℉ 30% 0% 0% 0%
Loma Linda 63 ℉ 86 ℉ 64 ℉ 87 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Fabens 66 ℉ 94 ℉ 66 ℉ 95 ℉ 20% 0% 0% 0%
Santa Teresa 63 ℉ 91 ℉ 62 ℉ 91 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
White Sands HQ 68 ℉ 91 ℉ 68 ℉ 91 ℉ 10% 10% 0% 0%
Jornada Range 62 ℉ 90 ℉ 62 ℉ 90 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Hatch 62 ℉ 92 ℉ 62 ℉ 91 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Columbus 64 ℉ 93 ℉ 64 ℉ 93 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Orogrande 62 ℉ 89 ℉ 61 ℉ 89 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Mayhill 55 ℉ 83 ℉ 54 ℉ 81 ℉ 10% 10% 0% 10%
Mescalero 54 ℉ 79 ℉ 52 ℉ 80 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 10%
Timberon 53 ℉ 79 ℉ 53 ℉ 79 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Winston 52 ℉ 81 ℉ 53 ℉ 79 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hillsboro 63 ℉ 86 ℉ 63 ℉ 85 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spaceport 59 ℉ 88 ℉ 59 ℉ 88 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lake Roberts 53 ℉ 82 ℉ 53 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hurley 58 ℉ 85 ℉ 58 ℉ 84 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cliff 56 ℉ 88 ℉ 56 ℉ 88 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mule Creek 53 ℉ 83 ℉ 54 ℉ 83 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Faywood 60 ℉ 85 ℉ 60 ℉ 85 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Animas 64 ℉ 90 ℉ 65 ℉ 89 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hachita 63 ℉ 89 ℉ 63 ℉ 89 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Antelope Wells 63 ℉ 91 ℉ 64 ℉ 89 ℉ 10% 0% 0% 0%
Cloverdale 61 ℉ 86 ℉ 61 ℉ 85 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.

FORECASTER...17-Hefner