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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS64 KEPZ 041117 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 417 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 400 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Dry today and Thursday with temperatures near normal.

- Breezy this afternoon, otherwise winds on the light side.

- Slight chance of showers Friday night and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Temperatures for the rest of the evening will be in the mid to upper 40s around El Paso, and closer to the low 40s outside the metropolitan area. Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 70s on Wednesday, at or around seasonal normals for early November. Winds will increase from the west to about 10-15 mph as an upper-level low passes through the Four Corners. This upper-level low will bring a Pacific cold front that will cool temperatures down overnight and into Thursday.

Conditions for the rest of the week will be dry and quiet, though an upper level trough moving through the Desert Southwest around Friday/Saturday could bring some limited moisture and rain chances. The ECMWF has a cutoff low splitting off from the trough Saturday afternoon, while the GFS does not. It remains to be seen how much precipitation we'll see.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SCT-BKN250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning becoming west 8-12G20 knots after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Fire concerns remain quite low as we are not expecting significant winds or very low RHs. We will see some afternoon westerly breezes today but winds into the weekend should be light otherwise. A Pacific storm system moves in Friday night and Saturday for a slight chance of showers. A backdoor cold front pushes in Saturday night for some breezy east/northeast winds.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Friday, increasing to 35-45% Saturday/Sunday. Mountains 25-40% through Friday, increasing to 35- 50% Saturday/Sunday. Vent rates fair-good today and Saturday/Sunday; poor-fair Thursday/Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of Precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
El Paso 49 ℉ 70 ℉ 48 ℉ 69 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sierra Blanca 48 ℉ 70 ℉ 44 ℉ 67 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Las Cruces 43 ℉ 68 ℉ 41 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alamogordo 44 ℉ 66 ℉ 39 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloudcroft 30 ℉ 53 ℉ 29 ℉ 52 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Truth or Consequences 43 ℉ 64 ℉ 42 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Silver City 37 ℉ 64 ℉ 39 ℉ 62 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deming 41 ℉ 66 ℉ 42 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lordsburg 39 ℉ 66 ℉ 43 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
West El Paso Metro 51 ℉ 69 ℉ 49 ℉ 69 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dell City 48 ℉ 70 ℉ 43 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fort Hancock 53 ℉ 76 ℉ 50 ℉ 75 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Loma Linda 46 ℉ 67 ℉ 43 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabens 51 ℉ 74 ℉ 50 ℉ 73 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Santa Teresa 46 ℉ 68 ℉ 45 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
White Sands HQ 48 ℉ 67 ℉ 45 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jornada Range 39 ℉ 66 ℉ 37 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hatch 41 ℉ 69 ℉ 38 ℉ 69 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Columbus 45 ℉ 68 ℉ 46 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orogrande 40 ℉ 65 ℉ 38 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mayhill 35 ℉ 64 ℉ 32 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mescalero 34 ℉ 65 ℉ 33 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Timberon 34 ℉ 63 ℉ 32 ℉ 62 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Winston 32 ℉ 63 ℉ 33 ℉ 63 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hillsboro 41 ℉ 65 ℉ 41 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spaceport 37 ℉ 65 ℉ 35 ℉ 65 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lake Roberts 30 ℉ 68 ℉ 30 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hurley 37 ℉ 65 ℉ 39 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cliff 33 ℉ 68 ℉ 32 ℉ 68 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mule Creek 29 ℉ 66 ℉ 29 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Faywood 40 ℉ 64 ℉ 41 ℉ 64 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Animas 42 ℉ 68 ℉ 44 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hachita 41 ℉ 66 ℉ 43 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Antelope Wells 45 ℉ 69 ℉ 45 ℉ 67 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloverdale 44 ℉ 67 ℉ 46 ℉ 66 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.

FORECASTER...17-Hefner