Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Low chances (15-30%) for showers or storms across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau from Sunday night into Tuesday.

- Stray chances (5-15%) for rain across the rest of the region through next week with most staying dry.

- Above average temperatures continue into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oppressive heat and the subtropical ridge continues over South Central TX with more above normal min/max temperatures expected. Onshore flow will be enhanced slightly over the next 36 hours as upper troughing advances east from the southern Rockies into West TX by Sunday. While the ridge axis holds steady over the central and eastern part of the state, leading to near record maximums today and Sunday, the western counties could see a bit more wind and cloud cover to put some space between the daily record high and what's in the forecast, especially on Sunday. Overnight lows will continue to be warm and in the 70s. By Sunday evening the upper level winds become more westerly over Central TX while a pocket of mid level moisture comes together over West Central TX, the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. This might be enough instability for a few overnight showers and thunderstorms to form over our NW counties.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Despite some of the increased troughiness out west, the mid level ridge holds its ground and corrals the instability over the higher terrain Monday. The ridge does weaken slightly but it position directly overhead helps keep temperatures persistent with those on Sunday. A weak front crosses the Red River Monday and stalls over West Central TX by Tuesday. This persistent pattern of weakness to the north continues to bring more instability over the higher terrain counties with some of the winds aloft pushing more moisture south Tuesday. This gives most of the forecast area a chance for some convection, but only isolated coverage underneath the ridge and without a distinct surface focus. While it will be nice to see some more areas getting rain, the down side is we'll continue to experience heat index values exceeding 100 at times.

The upper ridge appears to be a bit stronger over the area later in the week, but there is still a good moisture pooling and onshore flow to promote isolated convection. Outside the 7 day forecast, deterministic models continue to suggest an upper ridge breakdown in the 8-10 day time-frame, but only to push it later with each run. If this trend continues, we may have to endure the entire month of September under the heat wave.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low to mid-level cumulus continue this evening, then increasing high cloud cover moves over the area tonight which should limit MVFR ceiling development near terminals. Still, some SCT cigs around 2.5 kft seem reasonable through Sunday morning. Wind generally remains south to southeast around 10 knots or less with light and variable wind expected at I-35 terminals overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.