Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS62 KFFC 040718 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 218 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...KEY MESSAGES
- A cold front will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms today.
- There is a low-end risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and localized flooding over North GA.
- Above-normal temperatures continue through Friday with more seasonal temperatures returning this weekend into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Low clouds and scattered light rain showers blanket much of North and Central Georgia this morning. Soggy, dreary conditions will persist through the day as shower and thunderstorm coverage increases as a weak warm front lifts northward and ahead of an approaching cold front. A tightened pressure gradient between the approaching system to our west and the wedge that remains over the area will result in continued gusty winds particularly across North GA today. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there remains a low-end risk for a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and localized flooding. Currently, surface instability may be more limited given cloud cover in place. However, if any breaks in the clouds occur, instability may increase. While surface instability is lacking, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and bulk shear of 30-40kts may support damaging wind gusts with any stronger storms that occur. Additionally, localized nuisance flooding namely in low-lying or poor drainage areas will be a potential threat especially if showers or storms repeatedly move over the same areas or are slow moving. Overnight into early Thursday morning another batch of low clouds and fog can be expected. Fog likely impacting the early Thursday morning commute.
Over the course of the day, this next system will become more vertically stacked and at the surface occlude and slow down. Thus, the cold front is likely not to make it through today, keeping at least a chance for rain in the forecast for many areas through Thursday.
For today and Thursday temperatures will rise to the upper 60s to mid 70s and likely reaching 80 across parts of Central GA where clouds are less prevalent. Overnight temperatures will remain mild tonight with values in the 60s and 50s at the higher elevations.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
By Friday afternoon and evening the low pressure system will continue to be situated over the great lakes region putting our area to the south. Another area of low pressure will round the base of the trough on Friday before being absorbed into the main flow which will result in another frontal boundary pushing into Georgia. Current model guidance points towards limited rain chances (20% or less) with this system with PWATs around 1 inch forecasted currently. A jet streak is forecasted to be directly over north Georgia with this flow which could aid in limited rain chances being squeezed out. Overall rain chances remain limited with the main impact into the weekend being colder air being pushed into north Georgia behind this front. Temperatures will decrease into the 30s overnight beginning as early as Saturday morning and lasting through at least Tuesday morning. High temps will also lower into the mid to upper 60s this weekend. Past this weekend there remains much uncertainty with rain chances. While the GFS is indicating an increase in rain chances for Monday and potentially Tuesday with a low pressure system pushing eastward across the SE, the ECMWF is not buying into this solution. Will need to keep an eye on these two solutions as this time frame is likely to be our next chance for rainfall.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Cigs continue to lower through tonight, becmg IFR by around 07-10Z over Atlanta metro. LIFR is likely mainly at or shortly after 12Z. Light showers or drizzle will persist tonight only increasing in coverage through the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late morning and through the evening. SHRA/TSRA will be intermittent. Improvement in cigs during day tomorrow will be limited - likely only as good as IFR or low MVFR for all TAF sites.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Athens | 74 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 70% | 70% | 30% | 30% |
| Atlanta | 73 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 90% | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| Blairsville | 66 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 90% | 90% | 20% | 10% |
| Cartersville | 72 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 90% | 60% | 20% | 10% |
| Columbus | 77 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 80% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Gainesville | 69 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 90% | 70% | 30% | 20% |
| Macon | 79 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 70% | 50% | 20% | 30% |
| Rome | 73 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 80% | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| Peachtree City | 73 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 90% | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| Vidalia | 84 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 20% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...07