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000 FXUS62 KFFC 212358 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 758 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...KEY MESSAGES
- Tropical Storm Bertha will make slow westward progress across the northern Gulf over the next few days but will bring no direct local impacts.
- Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from Wednesday into late week as a frontal boundary stalls across the area, bringing the risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
- High temperatures will trend downward by late week as the front settles into north Georgia.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Interplay between deep, tropical moisture streaming off of Tropical Storm Bertha (and its eventual remnants) and an approaching cold front will drive sensible weather over the next few days. As alluded to in the previous forecast, today will largely be transitional as key features settle into place. An expansive cu field has developed across north and central Georgia, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms embedded within banding on the periphery of Bertha will translate very nearly due north this afternoon. Rain rates on the order of 1-2" per hour (and perhaps up to 3" in pockets) have been observed, but comparably quick storm motions (20-30 mph) should preclude much more than nuisance flooding this afternoon. Most locales north of I-20 will remain dry.
Moving into Wednesday proper, diurnally-enhanced convection will develop into the afternoon, with coverage bolstered by lift supplied from the aforementioned approaching cold front. PWATs are progged to surge above 2" (approaching daily maximums climatologically), enough to support locally torrential rainfall in the heaviest showers and thunderstorms that form. Both HiRes and global model guidance suggests that redevelopment will occur along the plume of moisture being advected atop the stalling front -- expected to be oriented roughly parallel to the I-20/I-85 connector. The potential for training/back-building along with high rain rates has prompted WPC to hoist a Slight (level 2 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday through Thursday morning. Current thinking is that flash flooding is unlikely to be widespread, but quick responses are possible in areas that receive multiple deluges, and chances will increase after dark.
Owing to progressively increasing cloud cover/storm chances, highs today are a tick cooler than yesterday, and tomorrow will be just a few degrees cooler still (relatively speaking) for the northern half of the forecast area. Highs will rise into the upper-80s to mid-90s 90s this afternoon, and into the mid-80s to lower 90s (and mid-90s for far southeast central Georgia most likely to be unaffected by convection) on Wednesday. Lows remain warm, in the low-to-mid 70s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the back half of the work week a front will stall out across the south, temperatures remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s but rain cooled afternoons will give the northern part of the CWA a break from the heat. Chances of afternoon thunderstorms will continue into the weekend and thanks to Tropical Storm Bertha's influx of moisture from the gulf some of those storms may be extremely efficient rain producers. The concern for flash flooding will continue through the weekend as PW values remain on the high side of climo averages.
By the time the weekend ends, the front will shift off and Bertha will be nothing more than a memory. Conditions will largely return to what we've been experiencing for most of the summer with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat risk concerns seem to creep into the forecast again by this time next week, but a lot can change between now and then.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Low end chances remain for shra through 03z but lightning remains unlikely and currently not being observed with any of the ongoing activity. Mostly VFR through the period, with a brief period of SCT to BKN MVFR between 10-15z. Winds will still largely be due S from 5-10kts but may begin to favor the SSW side by 12z Tuesday at least for the ATL sites and AHN.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Athens | 74 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 0% | 40% | 40% | 70% |
| Atlanta | 75 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 0% | 50% | 40% | 70% |
| Blairsville | 69 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 10% | 70% | 70% | 90% |
| Cartersville | 75 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 0% | 40% | 60% | 80% |
| Columbus | 76 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 10% | 60% | 20% | 50% |
| Gainesville | 75 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 60% | 90% |
| Macon | 74 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 10% | 40% |
| Rome | 75 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 0% | 40% | 60% | 70% |
| Peachtree City | 73 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 30% | 70% |
| Vidalia | 75 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...07